高海拔地区鼠疫患者流行病学特征的Meta分析  

Meta-analysis of epidemiological characteristics of plague cases in high altitude areas

作　　者：付邦 梁莹[2] 方心悦 岳玉娟[2] 任东升[2] 宋秀平[2] 鲁亮[2] 刘小波 刘起勇[1,2] FU Bang;LIANG Ying;FANG Xin-yue;YUE Yu-juan;REN Dong-sheng;SONG Xiuping;LU Liang;LIU Xiao-bo;LIU Qi-yong(Department of Vector Control,School of Public Health,Cheeloo College of Medicine,Shandong University,Jinan,Shandong 250012,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,WHO Collaborating Centre for Vector Surveillance and Management,Department of Vector Biology and Control,National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Vector-borne Infectious Diseases,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830002,China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学齐鲁医学院公共卫生学院媒介生物控制学系,山东济南250012 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所媒介生物控制室,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206 [3]新疆病媒传染病重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《中国媒介生物学及控制杂志》2025年第1期66-75,共10页Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(81703280);媒介生物监测与控制项目(102393220020020000012)。

摘　　要：目的通过Meta分析对高海拔地区鼠疫患者的流行病学特征进行评价,为高海拔地区鼠疫防控提供参考。方法使用“鼠疫”“败血性鼠疫”“黑死病”“肺炎型鼠疫”“肺鼠疫”“腹股沟鼠疫”“脑膜炎型鼠疫”“败血型鼠疫”“高原”为中文关键词,使用“altitude”“altitudes”“highland”“plateau”“tableland”“plateaus”“high altitude”“altiplano”“mountain”“high plateau”“elevation”“height”“plague”“Yersinia pestis infection”“septicemic plague”“black death”“black plague”“pneumonic plague”“pulmonic plague”“bubonic plague”“inguinal plague”“meningeal plague”为英文关键词系统检索Web of Science、Embase、PubMed、Cochrane Library、中国生物医学文献数据库、中国知网、万方数据服务平台、维普中文科技期刊数据库等,检索内容的时间范围为从建库开始到2024年3月14日。使用Excel 2019软件提取文献数据,运用R 4.3.3软件进行Meta分析。结果最终纳入72篇文献,均为描述性研究。异质性检验发现纳入研究存在异质性(I2>90.00%,P<0.01),故采用随机效应模型进行合并,鼠疫合并年均报告发病率为0.08/10万[95%置信区间(CI):0.06/10万~0.11/10万]。敏感度分析表明结果较稳定,Egger检验、Begg检验结果均P<0.05,纳入研究可能存在发表偏倚。地区分布的亚组分析结果显示,中国西藏自治区高海拔地区鼠疫年均报告发病率为0.17/10万(95%CI:0.11/10万~0.23/10万);中国青海省高海拔地区年均报告发病率为0.08/10万(95%CI:0.05/10万~0.11/10万);中国甘肃省高海拔地区年均报告发病率为0.01/10万(95%CI:0.00/10万~0.02/10万);蒙古国高海拔地区年均报告发病率为0.33/10万(95%CI:0.20/10万~0.48/10万);秘鲁高海拔地区年均报告发病率为0.02/10万(95%CI:0.01/10万~0.04/10万)。患病亚组分析结果显示,腺型鼠疫患者占比为27.26%,肺型占比为43.91%,败型占比为5.32%,�Objective The epidemiological characteristics of plague cases in high altitude areas were evaluated by metaanalysis,so as to provide a reference for plague prevention and control.Methods Use the Chinese and English key words such as altitude,altitudes,highland,plateau,tableland,plateaus,high altitude,altiplano,mountain,high plateau,elevation,height,plague,Yersinia pestis infection,black death,black plague,pneumonic plague,pulmonic plague,bubonic plague,septicemic plague,inguinal plague and meningeal plague to systematically search Web of Science,Embase,PubMed,Cochrane Library,SinoMed,CNKI,Wanfang Data Service platform,VIP Chinese scientific journals and other databases.The time range of the search is from the establishment of the database to March 14,2024.Excel 2019 was used to extract literature data,and R 4.3.3 software was used for meta analysis.Results Finally,72 literatures were included,all of which were descriptive studies.Heterogeneity test found that there was heterogeneity in the included studies(I 2>90.00%,P<0.01),so random-effects model was used to merge the studies,and the combined annual reported incidence of plague was 0.08/100000 people[95%confidence interval(CI):0.06/100000-0.11/100000].Sensitivity analysis showed that the results were stable,and Egger test and Begg test showed all P<0.05,indicating possible publication bias in included studies.Subgroup analysis of regional distribution showed that the average annual reported incidence of plague was 0.17/100000(95%CI:0.11/100000-0.23/100000)in high altitude areas of Tibet,0.08/100000(95%CI:0.05/100000-0.11/100000)in the high altitude area of Qinghai Province,0.01/100000(95%CI:0.00/100000-0.02/100000)in the high altitude area of Gansu Province,0.33/100000(95%CI:0.20/100000-0.48/100000)in high altitude areas of Mongolia,and 0.02/100000(95%CI:0.01/100000 to 0.04/100000)in high altitude areas of Peru.The analysis of disease subgroups showed that the proportion of cases with glandular type of plague was 27.26%,lung type was 43.91%,rancidity type was 5

关 键 词：鼠疫 黑死病 流行病学 META分析 

分 类 号：R183[医药卫生—流行病学]