Coupling Coordination Development and Driving Factors of New Energy Vehicles and Ecological Environment in China  

中国新能源汽车与生态环境耦合协调发展及驱动因素研究

作　　者：XU Zonghuang 徐宗煌(南京大学信息管理学院,江苏南京210023;南洋理工大学南洋商学院,新加坡639798)

机构地区：[1]School of Information Management,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China [2]Nanyang Business School,Nanyang Technological University,Singapore 639798,Singapore

出　　处：《Wuhan University Journal of Natural Sciences》2025年第1期79-90,共12页武汉大学学报(自然科学英文版)

基　　金：Supported by the Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(KYCX24_0102);the China Scholarship Council Program(202406190114)。

摘　　要：Studying the coupling coordination development of new energy vehicles(NEVs)and the ecological environment in China is helpful in promoting the development of NEVs in the country and is of great significance in promoting high-quality development of new energy in China.This paper constructs an evaluation index system for the development of NEVs and the ecological environment.It uses game theory combining weighting model,particle swarm optimized projection tracking evaluation model,coupling coordination degree model,and machine learning algorithms to calculate and analyze the level of coupling coordination development of NEVs and the ecological environment in China from 2010 to 2021,and identifies the driving factors.The research results show that:(i)From 2010 to 2021,the development index of NEVs in China has steadily increased from 0.085 to 0.634,while the ecological environment level index significantly rose from 0.170 to 0.884,reflecting the continuous development of China in both NEVs and the ecological environment.(ii)From 2010 to 2012,the two systems—new energy vehicle(NEV)development and the ecological environment—were in a period of imbalance and decline.From 2013 to 2016,they underwent a transition period,and from 2017 to 2021,they entered a period of coordinated development showing a trend of benign and continuous improvement.By 2021,they reached a good level of coordination.(iii)Indicators such as the number of patents granted for NEVs,water consumption per unit of GDP,and energy consumption per unit of GDP are the main driving factors affecting the coupling coordination development of NEVs and the ecological environment in China.研究中国新能源汽车与生态环境的耦合协调发展,对推动中国新能源汽车发展,及促进中国新能源高质量发展具有重要意义。文中通过构建新能源汽车发展与生态环境评价指标体系,运用博弈论组合赋权模型、模拟退火优化投影寻踪评价模型、耦合协调度模型和机器学习算法,测算并分析了2010-2021年中国新能源汽车与生态环境耦合协调发展水平,并识别出驱动因素。研究结果表明:(1)2010-2021年中国新能源汽车发展指数由0.085稳定提升至0.634,生态环境水平指数由0.170显著提升至0.884,反映出中国在新能源汽车和生态环境两方面的持续发展。(2)中国新能源汽车发展与生态环境两系统在2010-2012年处于失调衰退期,2013-2016年为过渡期,2017-2021年进入协调发展期,且呈现良性持续改善的趋势,2021年已达到良好协调水平。(3)新能源汽车发明专利授权量、单位GDP用水量、单位GDP耗能等指标为影响中国新能源汽车与生态环境耦合协调发展的主要驱动因素。

关 键 词：new energy vehicles(NEVs) ecological environment coupling coordination development machine learning driving factors 

分 类 号：F426.471[经济管理—产业经济] G350[文化科学—情报学]