人口老龄化对中国制造业技术转型的影响及机制研究  

On the Impact and Mechanism of Population Aging on Technological Transformation of Manufacturing Industry in China

作　　者：高楷博 田中景 GAO Kai-bo;TIAN Zhong-jing(College of Economics,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510632,China;School of Economics,Northeastern University at Qinhuangdao,Qinhuangdao 066004,China)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,广东广州510632 [2]东北大学秦皇岛分校经济学院,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《海南师范大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第1期105-112,共8页Journal of Hainan Normal University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“高标准农田建设对粮食生产气候韧性的影响机制及强化策略研究”(24YJC790048)。

摘　　要：人口是经济发展过程中最基本的要素。近年来,我国老龄化程度逐步加深,老龄化速度逐渐加快。在很长一段时间,依赖低成本的劳动力成本优势,中国制造业实现了飞速发展。如今,人口结构的改变意味着以往依靠低劳动力成本模式发展制造业的传统增长模式难以为继。针对这一现象,文章基于2004-2019年省级的面板数据,构建了制造业技术复杂度指标用以衡量制造业技术转型,探讨了人口老龄化对制造业转型的影响及具体影响机制。笔者研究发现:从全国范围来看,人口老龄化促进了制造业技术转型;在机制检验中,老龄化通过提高劳动力成本“倒逼”制造业技术转型,通过提高人均受教育年限有利于制造业技术转型,通过降低社会人力资本积累存量阻碍制造业技术转型。Population is the most fundamental element in the process of economic development.In recent years,China has witnessed a gradual deepening of aging degree and a gradual acelerated aging rate.For a long time,the manufacturing industry in China has achieved rapid development by relying on the advantage of low-cost labor.Nowadays,the change in the population structure implies that the traditional growth model of manufacturing industry development based on low labor costs is unsustainable.In view of this phenomenon,this paper constructs a technological complexity index for the manufacturing industry to measure technological transformation based on the provincial panel data from 2004 to 2019,and explores the impact of population aging on the transformation of the manufacturing industry as well as the specific impact mechanism.As found in the study of the paper author,from a national perspective,population aging has promoted technological transformation in the manufacturing industry;in the mechanism test,aging population"drives"manufacturing technological transformation by increasing labor costs,benefits manufacturing technology transformation by increasing per capita education years,as well as hinders manufacturing technology transformation by reducing the accumulation of social human capital.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 制造业技术转型 技术复杂度 面板数据模型 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]