2005—2022年南宁市风疹流行特征分析  

Analysis of rubella epidemic characteristics in Nanning from 2005 to 2022

作　　者：黄文秀 唐金芳[1,3] 陈海滨 朱秋映[4] 刘玄华[4] 林康明[4] 梁灵芝[1] 黄昌[1] 覃恒[1,3] HUANG Wen-xiu;TANG Jin-fang;CHEN Hai-bin;ZHU Qiu-ying;LIU Xuan-hua;LIN Kang-ming;LIANG Ling-zhi;HUANG Chang;QIN Heng(Nanning Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanning,Guangxi 530023,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]南宁市疾病预防控制中心,广西南宁530023 [2]广西现场流行病学培训项目,广西南宁530028 [3]广西壮族自治区医疗卫生重点学科突发急性传染性疾病防制学科,广西南宁530023 [4]广西壮族自治区疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2025年第1期8-14,共7页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：广西壮族自治区卫生健康委员会课题(Z20201482);南宁市医学重点学科项目[南卫医(2021)4]。

摘　　要：目的 分析2005—2022年南宁市风疹流行特征,为风疹防控提供参考依据。方法 收集南宁市2005—2022年风疹报告病例,采用joinpoint回归模型分析发病趋势;采用空间自相关分析和时空扫描分析风疹发病的聚集性。结果2005—2022年南宁市报告风疹4 001例,暴发疫情12起,无死亡病例。年均报告发病率为3.17/10万,整体呈先升后降、再升再降的趋势,2011和2018年分别出现疫情大高峰和小高峰。发病集中在3—6月,辖区(3.70/10万)高于辖县(2.48/10万),男性(3.58/10万)高于女性(2.72/10万),10~19岁组年均报告发病率最高,发病以学生为主,占73.53%,学生占比下降,农民、商业服务、家务及待业、其他职业占比上升。空间自相关分析发病存在显著的聚集性,“高-高”聚集区有从周边郊县向中心城区转移趋势,最后缩小并消失,“低-低”聚集区呈融合趋势;时空扫描发现2个聚集区,覆盖7个县区。结论 南宁市风疹防控取得显著成效,发病仍以10~19岁人群为主,发病年龄有后移现象。建议继续加强适龄儿童风疹疫苗接种,同时开展针对中学生、育龄妇女等重点人群接种。Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics of rubella in Nanning from 2005 to 2022, providing a reference for rubella prevention and control. Methods Reported rubella cases in Nanning from 2005 to 2022 were collected, and the Join Point regression model was utilized to analyze the trend of incidence. The spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatiotemporal scanning were employed to assess the clustering of rubella cases. Results A total of 4 001 rubella cases were reported in Nanning from 2005 to 2022, with 12 outbreaks and no fatalities. The average annual incidence rate was 3.17 per 100 000, displaying an initial increase followed by a decrease, then another increase and decrease, with significant peaks in 2011 and 2018. Cases were concentrated between March and June, with the incidence rate in urban areas (3.70 per 100 000) being higher than that in rural counties (2.48 per 100 000). Males (3.58 per 100 000) had a higher incidence than females (2.72 per 100 000), and the highest average annual incidence rate was observed in the age group of 10 to 19 years, predominantly among students (73.53%). The proportion of students decreased, while the proportions of farmers, commercial service workers, homemakers, the unemployed, and other professions increased. Spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated significant clustering, with a trend of “high-high” clusters shifting from surrounding counties to the urban center, ultimately shrinking and disappearing, while “low-low” clusters exhibited a merging trend. Spatiotemporal scanning identified two clusters covering seven counties and districts. Conclusion Significant progress has been made in rubella prevention and control in Nanning, with the incidence still primarily affecting the 10 to 19 age group and a noted shift in the age of onset. It is recommended to continue strengthening rubella vaccination for age-appropriate children, while also targeting vaccination efforts towards key populations such as middle school students and women of childbearing age.

关 键 词：风疹 发病率 JoinPoint回归模型 聚集性 

分 类 号：R511.2[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]