1990—2019年中国归因于不安全性行为的艾滋病和性传播感染死亡趋势的年龄-时期-队列分析  

Age-period-cohort analysis of trends in AIDS and sexually transmitted infection mortality attributed to unsafe sexual behavior in China from 1990 to 2019

作　　者：邱怡玮 程丽 柏如海 QIU Yi-wei;CHENG Li;BAI Ru-hai(School of Public Affairs,Nanjing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210000,China)

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学公共事务学院,江苏南京210000

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2025年第1期40-44,125,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家级大学生创新创业训练计划(202410288092Z)。

摘　　要：目的 评估1990—2019年中国归因于不安全性行为的艾滋病和性传播感染死亡率的长期趋势。方法 归因于不安全性行为的艾滋病和性传播感染数据来源于全球疾病负担研究(GBD)2019,采用年龄-时期-队列模型来评估长期趋势下潜在的年龄、时期、队列效应。结果 1990—2019年中国女性归因于不安全性行为的艾滋病和性传播感染死亡率的总体年度变化百分比为3.4%(95%CI:3.0%~3.7%),男性为6.4%(95%CI:6.0%~6.8%)。对于各年龄组,25~79岁之间,男性的年度变化百分比均高于女性(P<0.05)。在参考队列中,男性的死亡率随着年龄的增长而增加,女性在79岁以后年龄死亡率下降。男性的时期死亡风险呈现单调上升趋势,女性的时期死亡风险在2010—2014年略微下降,2015年之后有所增加。1925—1929年后出生的男女性死亡风险随着出生时间的推移呈上升趋势。结论 1990—2019年,中国男性和女性归因于不安全性行为的艾滋病和性传播感染死亡率都有所增加。不安全性行为是当前艾滋病和性传播感染防控面临的重要问题。加强性教育、性活动时使用安全套、注意性行为清洁等十分必要。Objective To evaluate the long-term trends in mortality rates attributed to AIDS and sexually transmitted infections(STIs)due to unsafe sexual behavior in China from 1990 to 2019.Methods Data on AIDS and STI mortality attributed to unsafe sexual behavior were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study(GBD)2019.An age-period-cohort model was employed to assess potential age,period,and cohort effects on long-term trends.Results From 1990 to 2019,the overall annual percentage change in mortality rates attributed to unsafe sexual behavior was 3.4%(95%CI:3.0%-3.7%)for females and 6.4%(95%CI:6.0%-6.8%)for males in China.Among different age groups,males aged 25 to 79 showed a higher annual percentage change than females(P<0.05).In the reference cohort,male mortality rates increased with age,while female mortality rates declined after the age of 79.The period mortality risk for males exhibited a consistently increasing trend,whereas the period mortality risk for females slightly decreased between 2010 and 2014 but increased thereafter.Mortality risks for both males and females born after 1925-1929 showed an upward trend over time.Conclusion Between 1990 and 2019,there was an increase in mortality rates attributed to AIDS and STIs due to unsafe sexual behavior among both males and females in China.Unsafe sexual behavior remains a significant issue in the prevention and control of AIDS and STIs.Strengthening sexual education,promoting condom use during sexual activities,and ensuring cleanliness in sexual behavior are essential.

关 键 词：艾滋病 性传播感染 不安全性行为 死亡率 年龄-时期-队列效应 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]