基于分布式滞后非线性模型分析青岛市气象因素与手足口病发病间关联  

Analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Qingdao based on a distributed lag nonlinear model

作　　者：刘艳[1] 张飞燕 段海平[1] 赖一万 贾静[1] 信雪苓 LIU Yan;ZHANG Fei-yan;DUAN Hai-ping;LAI Yi-wan;JIA Jing;XIN Xue-ling(Qingdao Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Qingdao,Shandong 266071,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]山东省青岛市疾病预防控制中心,山东青岛266071 [2]中国海洋大学信息科学与工程学部,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2025年第1期63-68,81,共7页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的 探究青岛市日均温度与相对湿度对手足口病发病的影响及其滞后效应,为青岛市防控策略提供数据支持。方法 基于青岛市疾控中心提供的青岛市2010—2019年手足口病病例与中国国家气象科学数据中心测量的气象数据,首先利用Pearson相关性分析筛选关键气象因素,其次通过Prophet模型分析手足口病发病和气象因素的周期性与趋势,最后采用分布式滞后非线性模型量化滞后效应。结果 研究发现,当青岛市日均气温在23~30℃范围内,手足口病发病的相对风险(RR)显著上升,日均气温到达30℃时RR达到峰值约2.2。当相对湿度在70%~90%区间时,RR明显上升,相对湿度接近90%,RR达到峰值约2.5。此外,日均气温与相对湿度对手足口病发病的影响具有滞后性,通常滞后期约为7 d左右。日均温度高于17℃时,滞后效应导致的手足口病传播风险逐渐增大;相对湿度超过70%后,滞后期约为7 d,手足口病的传播风险显著增强。结论 青岛市气温接近23℃或湿度接近70%时,将在一周后显著影响手足口病的发病。因此,建议青岛市相关部门在这些气象条件出现时,提前采取防控措施,以降低手足口病的传播风险。Objective To investigate the effects of daily average temperature and relative humidity on the incidence of hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD)in Qingdao,as well as their lagged effects,providing data support for prevention and control strategies in the city.Methods Utilizing HFMD case data from 2010 to 2019 provided by the Qingdao Center for Disease Control and Prevention and meteorological data measured by the China National Meteorological Science Data Center,we first employed Pearson correlation analysis to identify key meteorological factors.Subsequently,the Prophet model was used to analyze the periodicity and trends of HFMD incidence in relation to meteorological factors.Finally,a distributed lag nonlinear model was applied to quantify the lagged effects.Results The study found that when the daily average temperature in Qingdao ranged from 23°C to 30°C,the relative risk(RR)of HFMD significantly increased,peaking at approximately 2.2 when the temperature reached 30°C.Similarly,when relative humidity was between 70%and 90%,the RR increased notably,peaking at around 2.5 as humidity approached 90%.Additionally,the effects of daily average temperature and relative humidity on HFMD incidence exhibited lagged characteristics,typically with a lag period of about 7 days.When the daily average temperature exceeded 17°C,the risk of HFMD transmission due to lagged effects gradually increased;likewise,when relative humidity surpassed 70%,the lag period was approximately 7 days,resulting in a significant enhancement of transmission risk.Conclusion The findings indicate that when the temperature in Qingdao approaches 23°C or humidity nears 70%,there will be a significant impact on HFMD incidence one week later.Therefore,it is recommended that relevant departments in Qingdao implement preventive measures in advance during these meteorological conditions to reduce the risk of HFMD transmission.

关 键 词：手足口病 温度 湿度 滞后期 疾病预防 

分 类 号：R725.1[医药卫生—儿科]