产业现代化转型视角下的“老人农业”:全球趋势与中国经验  

"Elderly Agriculture"from the Perspective of Industrial Modernization Transformation:Global Trends and China's Experience

作　　者：杜鹏[1] 李子洋 DU Peng;LI Ziyang

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心、老年学研究所 [2]中国人民大学老年学研究所

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第1期67-81,共15页Journal of China Agricultural University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“实施积极应对人口老龄化国家战略”(21ZDA106)。

摘　　要：工业化与城镇化促使青壮年农业劳动力大规模向二三产业转移,老年人成为农业生产的主力,形成“老人农业”现象。“老人农业”不仅表现为农业劳动力的老龄化,还表现为老年人集中在农业领域就业。结合产业现代化转型的全球发展、阶段与地区差异,本研究利用国际劳工组织数据与中国2000-2020年的三次全国人口普查数据,从农业劳动力老龄化和老年在业人口集中于农业就业两个方面着手,分析“老人农业”的全球趋势与中国变迁。研究发现,第一,工业化推动所有年龄段劳动力向二三产业转移,但老年劳动力转移相对滞后。农业资源赋的差异形成了欧美模式和亚洲模式两种不同的产业转移形态。第二,在农业资源赋类型一致的情况下,产业现代化程度越高,农业劳动力老龄化程度越高。未来,在乡村振兴战略的指引下,为了更好地保障老年人权益、实现农业有序更替,要从提高农业劳动力生产率、拓展农业价值功能、提高农业回报率等方面推进农业的现代化发展。Industrialization and urbanization have driven the large-scale transfer of young and middleaged agricultural laborers to the secondary and tertiary industries,making the elderly the main workforce in agricultural production and leading to the phenomenon of"elderly agriculture."Therefore,""elderly agriculture"is not only a reflection of the aging of the agricultural labor force but also an indication of the concentration of elderly workers in the agricultural sector.Taking into account the global development,phases,and regional differences in industrial modernization transition,this study uses annual data from the International Labor Organization and China's population census data from 2000 to 2020(three censuses)to analyze the global trends of"elderly agriculture"and China's transformation.The study finds that,first,industrialization promotes labor migration across all age groups to secondary and tertiary industries,but the transfer of elderly workers lags behind.Differences in agricultural resource endowments have led to two distinct patterns of industrial transfer:the Euro-American model and the Asian model.Second,under the same type of agricultural resource endowment,the higher the level of industrial modernization,the greater the degree of agricultural labor force aging.Looking ahead,under the guidance of the rural revitalization strategy,to better protect the rights and interests of the elderly and ensure an orderly transition in agriculture,efforts should focus on enhancing agricultural labor productivity,expanding the functional value of agriculture,and increasing agricultural returns to advance agricultural modernization.

关 键 词：“老人农业” 产业转型 全球趋势 中国变迁 区域差异 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]