基于混合效应的红松人工林单木树高-胸径模型研究  

Mixed-effects Model of Individual-tree Height-diameter in Pinus koraiensis Plantation

作　　者：朱万才 刘奇峰 李亚洲 吴瑶 潘研 ZHU Wancai;LIU Qifeng;LI Yazhou;WU Yao;PAN Yan(Heilongjiang Forestry Science Research Institute,Heilongjiang Harbin 150081)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省林业科学研究所,黑龙江哈尔滨150081

出　　处：《林业科技》2025年第2期35-39,共5页Forestry Science & Technology

基　　金：黑龙江省省属科研院所科研业务费(YB2022-01、CZKYF2020-1-C031)。

摘　　要：建立红松人工林单木树高(HT)-胸径(DBH)曲线模型对未来红松人工林生长量预测具有重要意义。本研究基于黑龙江省东京城林业局红松人工林48块每木调查数据,选取7个常用的经验生长模型作为备选模型通过比较选取最优基础模型。基于最优基础模型引入样地水平随机效应,最终构建了基于样地水平随机效应的人工红松单木树高-胸径曲线混合效应模型。结果表明,与其他几个模型相比,Gompertz形式的M6取得了更好的拟合效果(R_(a)^(2)=0.8338,RMSE=1.609 1)。与最优基础模型比较,混合效应模型R_(a)^(2)显著升高,RMSE、AIC、BIC显著降低,拟合效果较好。基于混合模型的固定效应参数对树高-胸径曲线进行模拟发现,树高-胸径曲线变化规律为随着胸径的增大树高呈逐渐上升的趋势,前期树高增长较快,后期增长逐渐减缓,符合树高曲线的总体变化规律。本研究最终构建的树高-胸径曲线模型精度较高,能有效预估红松人工林单木树高变化规律,为未来东京城林业局红松人工林经营提供参考。Modeling the individual HT-DBH curve of Pinus koraiensis plantation is significantly important for the prediction of future growth of Pinus koraiensis plantation.In this study,7 commonly used experience growth models were selected as alternative models based on data from 48 sample plots of Pinus koraiensis plantation in the Dongjingcheng forestry administration,Heilongjiang Province,and the optimal basic model was selected by comparison.Based on the optimal basic model,sample-level random effects were introduced and a mixed-effects model for individual tree height-diameter of Pinus koraiensis was developed.The results show that the Gompertz form of M6 shows a better fitting results compared to several other models(R_(a)^(2)=0.8338,RMSE=1.6091).Compared with the optimal basic model,the mixed-effects model has a significantly higher R_(a)^(2),significantly lower RMSE,AIC,and BIC,and better fitting results.Based on the fixed effect parameters of the mixed model,the HT-DBH curve was simulated,and the results showed that with the increase of DBH was gradually increasing trend,and the tree height grew faster in the early stage,and the growth gradually slowed down in the later stage,which was consistent with the overall rule of change of the tree height curve. The HT-DBH curve model finally developed in this study has higher accuracy and can effectively predict the change rule of individual tree height in Pinus koraiensis plantation, which can provide a reference for the future management of Pinus koraiensis plantation in the Dongjingcheng forestry administration.

关 键 词：混合效应模型 树高-胸径模型 红松 

分 类 号：S753[农业科学—森林经理学]