美国“小院高墙”策略评估:人工智能领域的中美竞争与展望  

Evaluation of the U.S.“Small Yard,High Fence” Strategy:China-U.S.Competition and Prospects in Artificial Intelligence Field

作　　者：王丹[1] WANG Dan(China Executive Leadership Academy Pudong,Shanghai 201204,China)

机构地区：[1]中国浦东干部学院,上海201204

出　　处：《竞争情报》2025年第2期2-12,共11页Competitive Intelligence

摘　　要：随着人工智能技术的快速迭代和应用场景的不断拓展,中美两国在技术研发、产业布局和政策制定等方面的角力愈发激烈。这一竞争不仅塑造着全球人工智能发展的未来方向,也将深刻影响世界经济、政治乃至社会结构的演变。未来,中美人工智能竞争的走向将取决于多重因素的交织与平衡,其影响范围早已超越技术本身,成为21世纪大国博弈的重要缩影。通过理解美国“小院高墙”策略背后的逻辑,全面评估其施政效果,可以帮助我国竞争情报工作者在动态跟踪美国技术限制动向、分析中国技术突破点、预判风险与机遇、制定攻防兼备的竞争策略等层面建立战略坐标。Editor's Note:With the rapid iteration of artificial intelligence(AI) technology and the continuous expansion of its application scenarios,the competition between China and the United States in technological research and development,industrial deployment,and policy formulation has become increasingly intense.This rivalry not only shapes the future direction of global AI development but also profoundly influences the evolution of the world's economy,politics,and even social structures.The trajectory of China-U.S.AI competition will be determined by the interplay and balance of multiple factors in the future.Its impact has long transcended technology itself,becoming a crucial microcosm of great power rivalry in the 21st century.Understanding the logic behind the the U.S.administration's “small yard,high fence” strategy over the past four years and comprehensively assessing its effectiveness can help Chinese competitive intelligence professionals establish strategic coordinates in several key areas-dynamically tracking U.S.technology restrictions,analyzing China's technological breakthroughs,forecasting risks and opportunities,and formulating competitive strategies that integrate both offensive and defensive approaches.

关 键 词：小院高墙 技术堆栈 开源模型 人工智能 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]