社会变迁何以揭示政策变迁“黑箱”?——基于技术转型多层次模型下倡议联盟框架的解释  

How Do Social Changes Reveal the“Black Box”of Policy Changes? Interpretation of the Advocacy Coalition Framework Based on the Multi-level Model of Technological Transformation

作　　者：曲纵翔[1] 安冉 QU Zongxiang;AN Ran(School of Management,Minzu University of China,Beijing 100081,China;School of Public Administration and Policy,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中央民族大学管理学院,北京100081 [2]中国人民大学公共管理学院,北京100872

出　　处：《东北大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期77-89,共13页Journal of Northeastern University(Social Science)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(20CZZ030)。

摘　　要：倡议联盟框架作为解释政策变迁的主流工具,打破了传统政策研究中的“铁三角”思维。然而,由技术推动的社会变迁作为促成政策变迁的重要因素却被长期忽视。这导致倡议联盟框架难以解释环境变化带来的影响,且尚未明确政策产出至政策影响环节的运作机制。对此,基于技术转型的多层次模型对于解释政策变迁的“黑箱”状态具有显著优势。该过程以利基层、“社会—技术”体制、景观层为基础要素,表现为联盟信念与政策变迁需求形成、社会群体协调与政策形态松动、社会变迁与政策间断、联盟重组与政策变迁完成几个阶段。以数字技术推动的社会与政策变迁验证了该思路的合理性,确认并厘清了社会变迁对政策变迁具有的显著推动作用及其实现过程。As a mainstream tool to explain policy changes,the Advocacy Coalition Framework(ACF)has broken the“iron triangle”thinking in the traditional policy research.However,the social changes driven by technology,as an important factor in promoting policy changes,have been long overlooked.As a result,the ACF still finds it difficult to explain the impact of environmental changes,and the operating mechanism from policy output to policy impact is still unclear.In this regard,the multi-level model based on technological transformation has significant advantages in explaining the“black box”state of policy changes.The process is based on the grassroots level,the“socio-technical”system,and the landscape level,and is characterized by several stages:the formation of coalition beliefs and policy change demands,coordination of social groups and loosening of policy forms,social changes and policy discontinuity,and coalition reorganization and completion of policy changes.The social and policy changes driven by digital technology verify the rationality of this framework,and thus confirm and clarify the significant roles of social changes in promoting policy changes and their realization process.

关 键 词：政策变迁 社会变迁 多层次模型 倡议联盟框架 技术转型 

分 类 号：D601[政治法律—政治学]