多状态可再生能源分布式发电系统可靠性评估  

RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF MULTI-STATE RENEWABLE ENERGY DISTRIBUTED GENERATION SYSTEMS

作　　者：温艳清 郑晓亚[2] 陈剑慧 张慧 刘宝亮 邱青安 Wen Yanqing;Zheng Xiaoya;Chen Jianhui;Zhang Hui;Liu Baoliang;Qiu Qing’an(College of Mathematics and Statistics,Shanxi Datong University,Datong 037009,China;China North Standardization Center,Beijing 100089,China;School of Management,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]山西大同大学数学与统计学院,大同037009 [2]中国兵器工业标准化研究所,北京100089 [3]北京理工大学管理学院,北京100081

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2025年第3期199-206,共8页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71601101,72371030,72001026);山西省基础研究计划(20210302124310)。

摘　　要：针对可再生能源发电系统可靠性建模中二值状态局限性的问题,根据发电系统输出功率和用户电力负载动态变化的特征,构建太阳能光伏发电系统、风力发电系统、用户电力负载相互交叉组合的多状态马尔可夫过程模型,运用聚合随机过程理论,推导出度量系统可靠性的两个重要指标:可用度和供电不足的平均时间。最后,通过数值算例验证模型的正确性和适用性。In order to overcome the limitation of binary state in reliability modeling of renewable energy power generation systems,Multi-state Markov process models are constructed for the cross combination of solar photovoltaic power generation system,wind power generation system,and user power load based on the characteristics of dynamic changes in output power and user power load of the power generation system.Two important reliability indexes,availability and loss of load expectation,are derived by employing aggregated stochastic process theory.Finally,the correctness and applicability of the model are verified by numerical examples.The results show that the proposed model can provide a good theoretical basis for the reliability modeling of renewable energy power generation systems,and a more accurate reliability evaluation of power supply systems can be also achieved by using the proposed model and techniques.

关 键 词：太阳能 风电机组 可靠性 分布式发电系统 马尔可夫过程 

分 类 号：O213[理学—概率论与数理统计] TM711[理学—数学]