中国光伏产业组件退役规模测算模型  

MODELING OF DECOMMISSIONED PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULE SCALE IN CHINA

作　　者：白桦林 王青 江华 Bai Hualin;Wang Qing;Jiang Hua(China Photovoltaic Industry Association,Beijing 100846,China;China Center for Information Industry Development,Beijing 100846,China)

机构地区：[1]中国光伏行业协会,北京100846 [2]赛迪智库集成电路研究所,北京100846

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2025年第3期435-444,共10页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

摘　　要：以中国光伏产业退役组件为研究对象,针对行业内现有退役组件功率容量及质量规模预测对中国光伏产业的针对性与及时性有所不足的问题,充分考虑运行期间组件更换、不同年份组件更换率、电站容配比等产业实际情况,对电站端、制造端、建设端来源的退役组件容量及质量规模进行综合的建模分析,并分析建议模型后续优化方向如电站技改、组件回收与再利用的区分等。研究结果表明,2030年前中国光伏组件退役规模整体较少,在2030年,预计累计组件退役量约35万t,除电站组件退役外,制造过程中组件报废及施工过程中组件报废也为组件退役的重要来源;2035年以后光伏组件退役量开始爆发式增长,2035年及2050年累计组件退役量分别约合113、7423万t。组件回收企业未来需要结合退役组件规模增长速度、政策、技术发展情况等,在不同发展阶段合理规划发展重点,探索适配产业发展的商业模式。For the PV module recycling industry in China,there is an issue of lacking a dynamic market size prediction model with sufficient accuracy.The study,focusing on the scale of decommissioned PV modules in China,address the issue by establishing a model with multiple consideration of details covering module replacement work during operation,the variability of replacement ratio,DC/AC ratio,etc.The model is based on different module sources in consist of PV station operation,manufacturing as well as engineering.Several optimization work could be applied for the further study including renovation and recognition of recycling and reuse.The study shows that currently the decommissioned PV module scale is in a relative low level with 0.35 million ton of cumulative mass in 2030 where manufacturing and engineering sources are in considerable proportion.The outburst will start from 2035 and a significant growth will propel the cumulative mass from 1.13 million ton reaching 74.23 million ton in 2050.The enterprises in the industry shall discreetly plan their work in different phases,accounting the market size,policies as well as the technique development into their considerations.

关 键 词：光伏组件 回收 市场研究 预测模型 可持续发展 

分 类 号：F407.61[经济管理—产业经济]