四川省夏、秋季极端降水演变特征分析  

Characterization of the Evolution of Extreme Precipitation in Sichuan Province in Summer and Fall

作　　者：昝俊昇 王禹涵 谭诺峰 王伟 ZAN Junsheng;WANG Yuhan;TAN Nuofeng;WANG Wei(Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,College of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院/高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,四川成都610225

出　　处：《成都信息工程大学学报》2025年第2期192-200,共9页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项资助项目(GYHY201506001)。

摘　　要：频繁发生的极端降水对安全与经济发展造成了严重威胁。为应对极端降水灾害,利用中国气象局提供的1980-2014年逐日降水资料,采用趋势、相关等分析方法分析四川省夏、秋季日均降水量和极端降水指数(极强降水量R99P、强降水量R95P、降水强度SDII、降水日数R1)的时空变化规律,讨论随时间发展各极端降水指数与地形相关性的演变特征。结果表明:(1)四川省多年平均日降水主要集中在夏、秋两季。均呈自西向东逐渐增加的空间分布形势,大值区多集中在盆地西部;两季多地的历年降水量演变呈下降趋势,但降水强度呈现一定差异;夏、秋两季四川省各地日均降水与海拔显著相关。(2)根据降水与地形之间的关系将四川省分为3个子区域:一区为四川盆地,二区为四川省南部中海拔地区,三区为四川省西部高海拔地区。四川省夏、秋两季各极端降水指数在空间分布上,R99P、R95P与SDII多呈现自西向东渐增分布,夏季大值多在一区西部等地,表明一区为极端降水出现可能性较高的区域;在时间分布上,四川省的极端降水夏季呈减少趋势,多集中在一区西部,秋季相反。夏季各极端降水指数在1980-2007年与海拔均呈现较强的正相关性,近年R95P与SDII海拔依赖性更强且与海拔呈负相关,秋季相关性不如夏季明显。Frequent extreme precipitation poses a serious threat to people's safety and economic development in Sichuan,in order to cope with extreme precipitation disasters this paper utilizes the day-by-day precipitation data provided by China Meteorological Administration(CMA)from 1980-2014,and adopts trend,correlation,and other analytical methods,to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of average daily precipitation and extreme precipitation indices(very heavy precipitation R99P,heavy precipitation R95P,precipitation intensity SD,precipitation days R1),and discusses the evolution characteristics of the correlation between each extreme precipitation index and topography over time.The results show that:(1)the average daily precipitation in Sichuan Province is mainly concentrated in the summer and fall seasons.The spatial distribution situation is gradually increasing from west to east,and the large-value areas are mostly concentrated in the western part of the basin;the evolution of annual precipitation in many places in the two seasons shows a decreasing trend,but the intensity of precipitation shows some dfferences;the average daily precipitation in various parts of Sichuan Province in summer and fall is significantly correlated with the altitude.(2)According to the relationship between precipitation and topography,Sichuan Province is divided into three sub-regions:Zone 1 is the Sichuan Basin,Zone 2 is the middle-altitude region in southern Sichuan Province,and Zone 3 is the high-altitude region in western Sichuan Province.The spatial distribution of the extreme precipitation indices in Sichuan Province in summer and fall,R99P,R95P and SDII show a gradual increase in the distribution from west to east,and the large values in summer are mostly in the western part of Zone 1,indicating that Zone 1 is a region with a higher likelihood of extreme precipitation;in terms of time distribution,extreme precipitation in Sichuan Province shows a decreasing trend in summer,mostly concentrated in the western part of a region,and

关 键 词：极端降水指数 区域特征 时空演变 海拔依赖性 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]