基于长期能源替代规划系统模型的重庆市重点行业碳达峰路径研究  

Carbon Peak Pathways of Key Industries in Chongqing's Industrial Sector based on Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System

作　　者：潘琳燕 刘伟[1] 潘介榆 唐澜 赵妍 杜孟 杨勋渝 PAN Linyan;LIU Wei;PAN Jieyu;TANG Lan;ZHAO Yan;DU Meng;YANG Xunyu(College of Resources and Environment,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学资源环境学院,四川成都610225

出　　处：《成都信息工程大学学报》2025年第2期245-250,共6页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

基　　金：国家级大学生创新创业训练计划资助项目(202210621043)。

摘　　要：重庆市作为中国老工业之都,工业能源供需矛盾突出,加快推进重庆市实现工业领域碳达峰具有现实意义。通过设置4级活动水平构建LEAP模型,结合情景分析法设置基准情景、节能情景、低碳情景、节能+低碳情景4种情景,模拟2021-2040年重庆市工业领域重点行业碳排放达峰情况,并结合单因子分析法探究重庆市碳减排路径。结果表明:(1)重点行业均可实现2030年前碳达峰,基准情景、节能情景、低碳情景、节能+低碳情景下分别于2030、2029、2029、2027年达峰,峰值大小依次为122.43、117.06、115.40、112.98MtCO_(2)。(2)工业增加值由高速率转为低速率时,峰值将减少2.44~4.12MtCO_(2),工业增加值对碳减排贡献最大,其次为重点行业能源结构、重点行业增加值占工业增加值比重、重点行业能源强度。(3)建议参考基准情景发展模式,将推动工业经济高质量增长作为实现重点行业碳达峰目标的首要发展路径,加快工业能源结构绿色低碳转型,提高工业能源利用效率,降低工业能源强度。As the capital of my country's old industry,Chongqing city has a high contradiction between supply and demand in industrial energy and promoting the carbon peak of Chongqing to realize the industrial field.Build the Leap model through the level of four-level activity level,combined with the four scenarios of the scenario analysis method,setting the benchmark scene,energy-saving scenario,low-carbon scenario,energy saving+low-carbon scenarios.Simulate the carbon emissions of the key industry in the industrial field of Chongqing from 2021 to 2040 and explores the carbon emission reduction path of Chongqing through single-factor analysis.The results show that:(1)The key industries can achieve carbon peaks before 2030.The benchmark scenario achieve carbon peaks in 2030,with a carbon peak value of 122.43 MtCO_(2).The energy-saving scenario achieve carbon peak in 2029,with a carbon peak value of 117.06 MtCO_(2).The low-carbon scenario achieve carbon peak in 2029,with a carbon peak value of 115.40 MtCO_(2).The energy saving+low carbon scenario achieve the carbon peak in 2027,and the carbon peak value is 112.98 MtCO_(2).(2)When the industrial added value is changed from a high rate to a low rate,the peak value will decrease by 2.44-4.12 MtCO_(2),which contributes the greatest contribution to carbon emission reduction,following by the energy structure of key industries,the value-added value of key industries in the industrial added value,and the energy intensity of key industries.(3)It is recommended to refer to the development model of the benchmark scenario,which will promote the high-quality growth of the industrial economy as the primary development path to achieve the goal of carbon peaks in key industries,continuously accelerate the transformation of green low-carbon transformation of industrial energy structure,improve the efficiency of industrial energy utilization,and reduce industrial energy intensity.

关 键 词：碳达峰 LEAP模型 情景分析法 重点行业 重庆市 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]