基于灰色预测的光伏直流断路器寿命估计研究  

Research on Life Estimation of Photovoltaic Direct Current Circuit Breakers Based on Grey Prediction

作　　者：汤旭日 李纪凯 栾广彬 TANG Xuri;LI Jikai;LUAN Guangbin(School of Electrical&Control Engineering,Heilongjiang University of Science&Technology,Harbin 150022,China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江科技大学电气与控制工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150022

出　　处：《自动化仪表》2025年第3期59-64,共6页Process Automation Instrumentation

摘　　要：为实现光伏低压直流断路器剩余寿命的在线估计,分析了光照强度、温度因素和串并联结构对光伏短路电流的影响。首先,推导了实际工况下光伏阵列最大短路电流,并构建了双向多点灰色预测模型,实现了小样本寿命数据的重构和扩展。然后,利用最小二乘法,得到了不同开断电流下断路器寿命的拟合结果。最后,提出了对不同开断电流进行当量等效的思路,并在给出了断路器寿命在线预测方案的基础上进行了算例分析。分析结果表明,灰色模型正向预测结果的平均相对误差为2.20%、负向预测结果的平均相对误差为1.01%。所提模型能够有效预测光伏低压直流断路器的剩余寿命。To realize the online estimation of the remaining life of photovoltaic low-voltage direct current circuit breakers,the effects of light intensity,temperature factors and series and parallel structures on photovoltaic short-circuit current are analyzed.Firstly,the maximum short-circuit current of photovoltaic arrays under actual working conditions is derived,and a bi-directional multi-point gray prediction model is constructed to realize the reconstruction and extension of small sample life data.Then,using the least squares method,the fitting results of circuit breaker life under different opening currents are obtained.Finally,the idea of equivalent equivalence for different opening currents is proposed,and an arithmetic example analysis is carried out based on the given online prediction scheme of circuit breaker life.The analysis results show that the average relative error of the positive prediction results of the gray model is 2.20%,and the average relative error of the negative prediction results is 1.01%.The proposed model can effectively predict the remaining life of photovoltaic low-voltage direct current circuit breakers.

关 键 词：光伏发电 光伏组件 低压直流断路器 剩余寿命估计 当量等效 双向多点灰色预测 

分 类 号：TH701[机械工程—仪器科学与技术]