基于模糊逻辑与系统理论融合的地下储气库老井封堵施工风险评价方法  

A construction risk assessment method for old well plugging in underground gas storage based on integration of fuzzy logic and systematic theory

作　　者：胡瑾秋[1,2] 肖慈盼 许子涵 刘若昕 HU Jinqiu;XIAO Cipan;XU Zihan;LIU Ruoxin(College of Safety and Ocean Engineering,China University of Petroleum-Beijing,Beijing 102249,China;Key Laboratory of Oil&Gas Safety and Emergency Technology,Ministry of Emergency Management,Beijing 102249,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)安全与海洋工程学院 [2]应急管理部油气生产安全与应急技术重点实验室

出　　处：《天然气工业》2025年第3期112-122,共11页Natural Gas Industry

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“信息安全威胁下油气智慧管道系统失效新型致灾机理与早期预警”(编号:52074323)。

摘　　要：地下储气库(以下简称储气库)老井封堵施工,因井况复杂、动态交互性强,存在井筒窜气及封堵失效等高风险隐患。现有封堵井施工风险评价方法多依赖定性分析,难以量化关键因素间的非线性影响,且传统决策试验和评价实验室(DEMATEL)方法存在主观偏差问题。为此,基于模糊集理论改进DEMATEL算法,通过量化专家判断与引入原因度—中心度权重优化机制,构建了从系统级事故到不安全控制行为(UCA)的动态因果路径;然后结合概率阈值判定与多级风险传递分析,实现关键风险因素的定量排序与演化机理解析,最后建立了一种融合模糊逻辑与系统理论过程分析(Systematic Theory Process Analysis, STPA)的多尺度风险评价模型。研究结果表明:(1)融合改进的模糊DEMATEL与系统理论过程分析(STPA)方法能有效量化关键风险因素,通过引入原因度和中心度优化权重计算,显著降低了主观偏差,改进后方法的皮尔逊积矩(Pearson)相关系数优于传统模糊DEMATEL;(2)改进后的多级分析能对多个相互影响的风险因素进行多尺度的风险评价,确定不同风险因素的优化权重、相互间的因果关系、整体概率分布和传递路径;(3)多级风险传递路径分析揭示了不安全控制行为动态演化机制。结论认为,案例验证识别结果与施工现场实际风险高度吻合,该方法可以有效识别关键风险因素,且能够克服专家评价的模糊性与不确定性,为储气库老井封堵施工系统精准风险管控提供了理论和技术支撑。Due to complex well conditions and strong dynamic interaction,the plugging of old wells in underground gas storage(UGS)faces wellbore gas channeling,plugging failure and other high-risk hazards.The existing construction risk assessment methods for well plugging mostly depend on qualitative analysis,and can hardly quantify the non-linear influences between key factors.In addition,the conventional decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL)method has the problem of subjective biases.This paper improves the DEMATEL algorithm based on the fuzzy set theory,quantifies experts’judgments,and introduces the cause degree-centrality weight optimization mechanism,thus constructing a dynamic casual path from system-level accident to unsafe control action(UCA).Then,based on probability threshold determination and multi-level risk transmission analysis,the key risk factors are ranked quantitatively,and their evolution mechanisms are analyzed.Finally,a multi-scale risk assessment model integrating fuzzy logic and systematic theory process analysis(STPA)is established.The following results are obtained.First,the method integrating fuzzy DEMATEL and STPA can quantify the key risk factors effectively,the introduction of cause degree and centrality for the optimization of weight calculation reduces the objective biases significantly,and the Pearson correlation coefficient of the improved method is superior to that of the conventional fuzzy DEMATEL.Second,the improved multi-level analysis can perform multi-scale risk evaluation on multiple interactive risk factors,and determine the optimized weights,casual relationships,overall probability distribution and transmission paths of different risk factors.Third,the multi-level risk transmission path analysis reveals the dynamic evolution mechanisms of UCA.In conclusion,the case verification and identification results are highly consistent with the actual risks at construction sites.This method can identify the key risk factors effectively,eliminate the ambiguity and uncerta

关 键 词：储气库 老井封堵 系统理论过程分析 模糊集理论 决策试验与评价实验室 施工风险评价 

分 类 号：TE822[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]