2020-2023年四川省猩红热流行病学特征及空间聚集性分析  

Epidemiological characteristics and spatial clustering analysis of scarlet fever in Sichuan Province from 2020 to 2023

作　　者：张文莉 张玲琳[1] 杨菲[1] 袁珩[1] ZHANG Wenli;ZHANG Linglin;YANG Fei;YUAN Heng(Vaccine Center,Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu,Sichuan 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省疾病预防控制中心疫苗中心,四川成都610041

出　　处：《医药前沿》2025年第10期1-6,共6页Journal of Frontiers of Medicine

摘　　要：目的分析2020—2023年四川省猩红热的流行病学特征及空间聚集性,以期为制订有效的防控策略和措施提供参考依据。方法从“中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病报告信息管理系统”获取2020年1月—2023年12月四川省猩红热病例信息;同时,从《四川省统计年鉴》获取2020—2023年四川省人口学数据。采用SPSS 23.0统计学软件对猩红热病例的流行特征进行描述性分析,并通过Python 3.12.4进行空间自相关和热点分析。结果2020—2023年四川省累计报告猩红热病例5570例,年均报告1393例,年均发病率1.66/10万。发病率2021年>2022年>2023年>2020年。4—6月及11月—次年1月为发病高峰,2月为发病低谷。男性发病率(1.80/10万)高于女性发病率(1.26/10万),发病主要集中在0~10岁,以儿童和学生群体为主要发病者,占比99.10%。全局空间自相关分析显示,2021年四川省猩红热病例分布呈空间正相关(P<0.05);局部空间自相关分析显示,2020—2023年四川省猩红热发病呈“高-高”聚集和“低-高”聚集模式;热点分析显示,2020—2023年宜宾市均是猩红热病例热点区域(P<0.05),2022年和2023年成都市为新出现热点区域(P<0.05)。结论2020年四川省猩红热发病率最低,2020—2023年四川省猩红热发病高峰主要集中在4—6月及11月—次年1月,而2月为全年发病低谷。该病好发于儿童和学生群体,并表现出一定空间聚集性,且聚集区域有逐年扩大趋势。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatial clustering of scarlet fever in Sichuan Province from 2020 to 2023,so as to provide reference for formulating effective prevention and control strategies and measures.Methods The information of scarlet fever cases in Sichuan Province from January 2020 to December 2023 was obtained from the Information Management System for Infectious Disease Reporting of the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.At the same time,the demographic data of Sichuan Province from 2020 to 2023 was obtained from the Sichuan Statistical Yearbook.Descriptive analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of scarlet fever cases was performed by using SPSS 23.0 statistical software,and spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analysis were performed by using Python 3.12.4.Results A total of 5570 scarlet fever cases were reported in Sichuan Province from 2020 to 2023,and an average annual report was 1393 cases with an average annual incidence rate of 1.66/100000.The incidence rates from high to low were 2021,2022,2023 and 2020 in turn.Incidence rates were the peak in April-June and November-January of the following year,while incidence rate was lower in February.The incidence rate of males(1.80/100000)was higher than that of females(1.26/100000),and onset of disease population mainly concentrated in 0-10 years old,with children and students as the main incidence group,which accounted for 99.10%.The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the distribution of scarlet fever cases in Sichuan Province in 2021 was positive spatial correlation(P<0.05).Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the incidence of scarlet fever in Sichuan Province from 2020 to 2023 showed a"high-high"aggregation and"low-high"aggregation patterns.Hot spot analysis showed that Yibin City was the hot spot area of scarlet fever cases from 2020 to 2023(P<0.05),and Chengdu City was the new hot spot area in 2022 and 2023(P<0.05).Conclusions The incidence rate of scarlet fe

关 键 词：猩红热 四川省 发病率 流行趋势 全局空间自相关 局部空间自相关 热点分析 

分 类 号：R515[医药卫生—内科学]