能源供需失衡的衡量及其对经济增长的影响  

Measurement of Energy Supply-Demand Imbalances and Its Impact on Economic Growth

作　　者：王蕾[1] 王振霞[2] 尚梦飞 WANG Lei;WANG Zhen-xia;SHANG Meng-fei

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所、能源经济研究中心 [2]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院 [3]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院

出　　处：《学习与探索》2025年第3期128-139,176,共13页Study & Exploration

基　　金：中国社会科学院创新工程项目“加快构建新型能源体系研究”;中国社会科学院登峰战略优势学科(产业经济学)项目(DF2023YS24)。

摘　　要：能源安全事关经济社会发展全局。在系统总结能源安全定义的基础上,本文运用机器学习方法,构建了包含供求、低碳和清洁等含义的综合性指标,以全面地衡量能源供给短缺和供求失衡。实证结果显示,在综合考虑低碳和清洁要求后,我国面临较为严峻的能源安全形势。从省际层面看,2010—2021年面临能源短缺问题的省份数量增加至21个,短缺严重的省份主要集中在京津冀、珠三角和长三角等经济发达地区。从城市层面看,样本期内165个城市中,85个城市出现了程度不一的能源供需紧张情况。在此基础上,本文还检验了能源供给短缺与经济增长的关系,结果显示,频繁出现的能源供给短缺显著抑制经济增长。为此,在新能源逐步取代传统能源的转型过渡期,尽可能保持能源供给稳定对保障经济持续高质量增长具有重要意义。Energy security is fundamental to the overall economic and social development.On the basis of sum-marizing the definition of energy security in the system,this article employs machine learning methods to con-struct comprehensive indicators that include supply-demand balance,low-carbon,and cleanliness,in order to comprehensively measure energy supply shortages and supply-demand imbalances.The empirical results reveal that after considering low-carbon and clean requirements comprehensively,China is facing a relatively severe energy security challenge.From an provincial-level analysis,the number of provinces facing energy short-ages increased to 21 from 2010 to 2020,with severe shortages mainly concentrated in economically developed regions such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Pearl River Delta,and Yangtze River Delta regions.At the urban level,85 out of 165 sampled cities still experienced varying degrees of energy supply and demand tension.On this basis,the article examines the relationship between energy supply shortages and economic growth,and the results show that frequent energy supply shortages significantly inhibit economic growth.Therefore,in the tran-sitional period of gradually replacing traditional energy with new energy,it is of great significance to maintain energy supply stability as much as possible to ensure sustained high-quality economic growth.

关 键 词：能源安全 能源短缺 机器学习 经济增长 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济] F206