基于多重分形理论、视应力及b值的区域发震概率计算——以郯庐断裂带安丘-莒县段为例  

Regional Earthquake Occurrence Probability Calculation Based on Multifractal Theory,Apparent Stress and b Value:A Case Study of Anqiu-Juxian Section of Tanlu Fault Zone

作　　者：孙强 李国一 王鹏 张正帅[4] 李翠芹[4] 李冬梅[4] SUN Qiang;LI Guoyi;WANG Peng;ZHANG Zhengshuai;LI Cuiqin;LI Dongmei(Zibo Emergency and Rescue Command Support Service Center,57 Lutai Road,Zibo 255000,China;Earthquake Prevention and Disaster Reduction Center of Zibo,57 Lutai Road,Zibo 255000,China;Zibo Telemetry Seismic Network,57 Lutai Road,Zibo 255000,China;Shandong Earthquake Agency,2066 Gangxi Road,Jinan 250102,China;Shandong Institute of Petroleum and Chemical Technology,271 Beier Road,Dongying 257061,China)

机构地区：[1]淄博市应急救援指挥保障服务中心,山东省淄博市255000 [2]淄博市防震减灾中心,山东省淄博市255000 [3]淄博遥测地震台网,山东省淄博市255000 [4]山东省地震局,济南市250102 [5]山东石油化工学院,山东省东营市257061

出　　处：《大地测量与地球动力学》2025年第4期380-391,共12页Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics

基　　金：山东省地震局一般科研项目(YB2522);中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2020020102,2022010106)。

摘　　要：通过将区域地壳应力的强弱与其发震概率进行联系,提出以视应力为基础数据来计算区域发震概率的方法,主要得出以下结论:1)运用多重分形理论计算奇异值α,揭示研究区隐含的应力富集区、贫乏区和背景区。2)推导奇异值α与b值拟合的新方法,得到奇异值背景下的b值,使地壳应力强弱与b值得到统一。3)运用产生随机数的方法计算参考区剪应力加载速率值,并运用指定公式计算其他剪应力加载速率值。4)运用对数正态分布模型计算地震发生概率时,使用定积分进行模型参数处理,结果发现,剪应力加载速率值的计算误差是影响结果不确定性的主要来源。5)与正态分布模型和BPT模型进行对比验证发现,对数正态分布模型与正态分布模型计算结果吻合较好,而与BPT模型差别较大,这可能是各模型算法不同导致的。6)研究区5级以上地震发生概率较高的地区在沂源-临朐-安丘-诸城-沂水围成的区域、沂水-五莲-莒县-沂南围成的区域和研究区北部临朐-昌乐一带。10 a发震的条件概率最高可达0.034,累积概率可达0.861;30 a发震的条件概率最高可达0.097,累积概率可达0.87;50 a发震的条件概率最高可达0.15,累积概率可达0.878。This paper attempts to link the strength of regional crustal stress with its earthquake occurrence probability,and proposes a method to calculate regional earthquake occurrence probability based on apparent stress data,which mainly solves the following problems:1)The singular value is calculated using multifractal theory,and the stress rich region,poor region and background region are revealed.2)A new method of fitting singular value and b value is derived,and b value under the background of singular value are obtained,so that the strength of crustal stress and b value are unified.3)A suitable method is designed to calculate the shear stress loading rate of the reference area,and then other shear stress loading rate value are calculated by using the specified formula.4)When the lognormal model is used to calculate the probability of earthquake occurrence,the fixed integral is used to process the model parameters,and the error of shear stress loading rate is the main source of the uncertainty of the result.5)Compared with the normal distribution model and the BPT model,it is found that the lognormal distribution model agrees well with the normal distribution model,but there is a big difference between the lognormal distribution model and the BPT model,which may be due to the different algorithms of each model.6)According to the calculation and analysis,the areas with a higher probability of earthquake occurrence of magnitude 5 or above in the study region are located within the enclosed areas of Yiyuan-Linqu-Anqiu-Zhucheng-Yishui,Yishui-Wulian-Juxian-Yinan and Linqu-Changle in the north of the study area.The conditional probability of earthquake occurrence in 10 years is up to 0.034,and the cumulative probability is up to 0.861.The conditional probability of earthquake occurrence in 30 years is up to 0.097,and the cumulative probability is up to 0.87.The conditional probability of earthquake occurrence in 50 years is up to 0.15,and the cumulative probability is up to 0.878.

关 键 词：多重分形理论 视应力 B值 剪应力加载速率 发震概率 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]