基于R语言逐步回归分析的大坝变形影响因素研究  

Study on Factors Influencing Dam Deformation Based on Stepwise Regression Analysis in R Language

作　　者：贠佳俊 韩继宗 YUN Jiajun;HAN Jizong(Construction and Management Branch of China Three Gorges Renewables(Group)Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 101100,China;PowerChina Guiyang Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Guiyang 550000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国三峡新能源(集团)股份有限公司建设管理分公司,北京101100 [2]中国电建集团贵阳勘测设计研究院有限公司,贵州贵阳550000

出　　处：《中国水能及电气化》2025年第3期36-43,共8页China Water Power & Electrification

摘　　要：本研究应用逐步回归分析方法,对长龙山抽水蓄能电站上水库主坝的变形监测数据进行深入分析,探讨水位、降雨量、温度等环境因素对大坝变形的影响。通过模型诊断与残差分析,验证了模型的合理性,结果表明降雨量是垂直位移的主要影响因素,而水位则显著影响水平位移。该研究为大坝安全管理和预警系统提供了重要的理论依据和数据支持。This paper applies the stepwise regression analysis method to deeply analyze the deformation monitoring data of the main dam of the upper reservoir at the Changlongshan Pumped Storage Power Station,investigating the effects of environmental factors such as water level,rainfall,and temperature on dam deformation.Model diagnostics and residual analysis were conducted to verify the model’s validity.The results indicate that rainfall is the primary influencing factor for vertical displacement,while water level significantly affects horizontal displacement.This research provides important theoretical support and data for dam safety management and early warning systems.

关 键 词：大坝变形 逐步回归分析 影响因素 统计显著性 

分 类 号：TV698.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]