地区性两极格局中前沿支点国家的生存战略选择机制  

Selection Mechanism of Survival Strategic for Frontier Pivot States in the Regional Bipolar Pattern

作　　者：秦立志 付腾浩 QIN Li-zhi;FU Teng-hao

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学国际事务与公共管理学院 [2]中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院 [3]山东大学欧洲研究中心,青岛266071

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2025年第2期22-44,127,共24页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(21BGJ068)。

摘　　要：在地区性两极格局中,一些中小国家具备特殊的战略价值,它们处于邻近大国实现自身防御或战略扩张的关键位置;同时又是较远大国实现战略威慑、政治渗透等战略目标的前沿支点。在既有研究中,对冲战略几乎已经成为中小国家面临两强对抗的主要手段。但相关研究很大程度上无视了战略不确定性与决策过程复杂性的常识。对于中小国家而言,风险规避既不一定是理性选择的必然结果,也不一定是脱离困境的最佳手段。通过对变量机制的分析和案例过程的追踪,发现外部支持和决策环境紧迫性之间的变量作用能够对中小国家的行为模式做出初步解释。外部支持是影响中小国家选择示强或示弱战略的重要变量,在此基础上,决策环境的紧迫性又进一步发挥了调节作用,影响了国家在保守和激进之间的抉择。当前,一些地区体系的两极化与对抗性趋势愈发明显,对相关问题的探讨不仅能够识别大国竞争背景下的中小国家战略逻辑,还能为我国在相关地区安全局势的研判带来有益启发。In the regional bipolar pattern,some small and medium-sized states possess special strategic value.They are located atkey positions for neighboring major powers to achieve defense or strategic expansion,and at the same time,they serve as the frontier pivot for more distant major powers to achieve strategic deterrence and political infiltration.In existing research,hedging strategy has almost become the main means for small and mediumsized states to face confrontation between two major powers.However,relevant research has largely ignored the common sense of strategic uncertainty and the complexity of the decision-making process.For small and medium-sized states,risk avoidance is not an inevitable result of rational choice,nor is it the best means to escape from a dilemma.Through the analysis of variable mechanisms and the tracking of case processes,this study finds that the interaction between external support and the urgency of the decision-making environment can provide a preliminary explanation for the behavior patterns of small and medium-sized states.External support is an important variable affecting the choice of small and medium-sized states to adopt a strong or weak strategy,and on this basis,the urgency of the decision-making environment further plays a moderating role,influencing the state's choice between conservatism and aggressiveness.Currently,the trend of bipolarity and confrontation in some regional systems is becoming increasingly evident.The exploration of related issues not only helps to identify the strategic logic of small and medium-sized states against the background of great power competition but also provides beneficial insights into China's assessment of the security situation in related regions.

关 键 词：两极格局 中间地带 中小国家 对冲战略 制衡 绥靖 新古典现实主义 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]