多情景模拟下福州市土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响  

Multi-scenario Simulation of the Impact of Land Use Change on the Value of Ecosystem Services in Fuzhou City

作　　者：刘凡可 肖桂荣[1,2] Liu Fanke;Xiao Guirong(The Academy of Digital China(Fujian),Fuzhou University,Fuzhou Fujian 350108;Key Laboratory of Spatial Data Mining and Information Sharing of Ministry of Education,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou Fujian 350108,China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学数字中国研究院(福建),福建福州350108 [2]福州大学空间数据挖掘与信息共享教育部重点实验室,福建福州350108

出　　处：《国土与自然资源研究》2025年第3期26-30,共5页Territory & Natural Resources Study

基　　金：中国科学院A类战略性先导科技专项(XDA23100504)。

摘　　要：本文以福州市为研究区,基于四期土地利用数据和生态系统服务价值评估模型,设定耕地保护、城市发展、生态保护和自然发展4种情景,运用MCCA模型模拟出2035年不同情景下土地利用变化对福州市生态系统服务价值的影响。结果表明,建设用地显著增加会导致耕地、林地和草地总量降低,造成ESV降低。生态保护情景放缓了建设用地扩展速率,林地资源的恢复使其ESV出现了上涨,是最符合福州市未来国土空间规划的土地利用优化最优情景。林地和水域是影响生态质量最显著的两种地类,未来规划过程中应加大对林地和水域的保护与治理。研究结果可为福州市土地利用格局完善和生态环境质量提高提供参考依据。Taking Fuzhou as the research area,based on the four-phase land use data and ecosystem service value estimation model,thepaper set up four scenarios of cultivated land protection,urban development,ecological protection,andnatural development,and used the MCCA model to simulate the impact of land use change on the ecosystem service value of Fuzhou under different scenarios in 2035.The results showed that a significant increase in construction land would lead to a decrease in the total amount of cultivated land,forest land and grassland,resulting in a decrease in ESV.The ecological protection scenario slows down the expansion rate of construction land,and the restoration of forest land resources increases the ESV,which is the best scenario for land use optimization in Fuzhou’s future land spatial planning.Forest land and water area are the two types of land that have the most significant impact on ecological quality,and the protection and management of forest land and water area should be strengthened in the future planning process.The results of this study can provide a reference for the improvement of land use pattern and ecological environment quality in Fuzhou.

关 键 词：土地利用模拟 MCCA模型 多情景 生态系统服务价值 福州市 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济] F129.9