甘肃省农牧交错带农户生产系统碳平衡调控模拟及优化  

Simulation and Optimization of Carbon Balance Regulation of Farmers’Production System in Agro-pastoral Transitional Zone in Gansu Province

作　　者：罗霞霞 燕振刚[2] 李薇 Luo Xiaxia;Yan Zhengang;Li Wei(College of Science,Gansu Agriculture University,Lanzhou Gansu 730070,China;College of Information Science and Technology,Gansu Agriculture University,Lanzhou Gansu 730070,China;College of Finance and Economics,Gansu Agriculture University,Lanzhou Gansu 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学理学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]甘肃农业大学信息科学技术学院,甘肃兰州730070 [3]甘肃农业大学财经学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《国土与自然资源研究》2025年第3期69-75,共7页Territory & Natural Resources Study

基　　金：国家自然科学项目“甘肃省典型农业生产系统温室气体排放评估及趋势预测”(31660347);甘肃省重点研发计划项目(21YF5FA095);甘肃省高等学校创新基金项目(2021A-057);甘肃省财政厅项目(GSCZZ-20160909-03)。

摘　　要：论文针对农牧交错带农户生产系统碳平衡调控较为困难的实际问题,选择典型市州临夏的227家农户作为研究对象,运用碳足迹生命法,联结农户收入,评估了农户生产系统碳排放、碳固定、碳平衡和碳排放强度,并拟合分析了碳排放和碳强度间的关系。最后运用Richards模型和幂函数分别模拟了农户碳排放与养殖利润占比、农户碳排放与种植利润占比之间的关系,结合“以种定养”思路,优化农户养殖规模。结果表明,农户生产系统中作物户均碳平衡为玉米>小麦>油菜>苜蓿,碳排放强度为玉米>小麦>苜蓿>油菜,家畜户均碳平衡及碳排放强度为羊>牛>猪>鸡;碳排放与碳强度呈倒“U”形曲线关系,且当农户利润在1.16~1.66万元间,碳排放量在7.22~8.97万kg CE间,农户碳排放强度高;当养殖利润占比小于0.8,种植利润占比大于0.2时,可将农户碳排放控制在5万kg CE内;农户单位畜禽养殖合理承载空间为1.06~1.62羊单位/亩。本研究为探索甘肃省农牧交错带农户生产系统碳平衡及助力农户低碳生产提供了理论依据和数据支撑。Carbon balance regulation in agro-pastoral ecotone household production systems is difficult.This study selected 227 households in Linxia as the research objects,used the carbon footprint life cycle method,linked household income,and evaluated household production system carbon emissions,carbon fixation,carbon balance,and carbon emission intensity.The relationship between carbon emissions and carbon intensity was fitted and analyzed.Finally,the Richards model and power function were used to simulate the relationship between households’ carbon emissions and the proportion of profits from livestock farming and crop cultivation, respectively. Combined with the idea of “cultivation-based breeding”, the livestock scale of households was optimized. The results showed that, in the household production system, the per capita carbon balance of crops was corn>wheat>rape>alfalfa, and the carbon emission intensity was corn>wheat>alfalfa>rape. The per capita carbon balance and carbon emission intensity of livestock were sheep>cattle>pig>chicken. Carbon emissions and carbon intensity showed an inverted U-shaped curve relationship. When household profits between 11 600 and 16 600 RMB, carbon emissions were between 72 200 and 89 700 kg CE, indicating high carbon emission intensity. When the proportion of livestock farming profits was less than 0.8 and the proportion of crop cultivation profits was greater than 0.2, carbon emissions could be controlled within 50 000 kg CE. The reasonable carrying capacity of livestock and poultry per household was 1.06-1.62 sheep units per mu. This research provides theoretical foundations and data support for exploring carbon balance in household production systems in the agro-pastoral ecotone in Gansu Province.

关 键 词：碳排放 作物家畜综合生产系统 碳强度 草畜平衡 RICHARDS 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济]