长江流域复合极端气候事件指标及识别方法综述  

Progress of research on compound extreme climate events′indices and identification methods in Changjiang River Basin

作　　者：冯扬 秦鹏程[1,2] 胡一阳 牛自耕 夏智宏 FENG Yang;QIN Pengcheng;HU Yiyang;NIU Zigeng;XIA Zhihong(Wuhan Regional Climate Center,Wuhan 430074,China;Meteorological Center of Yangtze River Basin,Wuhan 430074,China;Xianning Meteorological Office,Xianning 437000,China;School of Geography and Information Engineering,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉区域气候中心,湖北武汉430074 [2]长江流域气象中心,湖北武汉430074 [3]咸宁市气象局,湖北咸宁437000 [4]中国地质大学(武汉)地理与信息工程学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《人民长江》2025年第3期95-105,共11页Yangtze River

基　　金：中国气象局创新发展专项项目(CXFZ2023J051);湖北省自然科学基金重点项目(2023AFD098)。

摘　　要：为全面系统地认识气候变化背景下长江流域复合极端气候事件的历史特征和变化趋势,对复合事件的定义与类型、指标体系、识别算法以及历史复合事件识别结果等进行了文献综述。研究表明:①复合事件具有两个或多个事件同时或相继发生,导致影响放大,并造成极端影响等特征,分类方式多样;根据时空分布组合,长江流域可确定4类复合极端气候事件,其中时空同步复合事件(高温干旱、低温雨雪冰冻)、同地继发事件(旱涝急转、洪水热浪)研究相对较丰富,而异地同发和异地继发复合事件文献研究相对较少。②目前国内外复合事件识别常基于某种指标运用绝对阈值法或者相对阈值法实现,常用指标共计有26种,识别方法30余种。③长江流域是复合事件的高发区,21世纪以来,长江流域频率增加最明显的是洪水热浪复合事件,其次是高温干旱和旱涝急转复合事件,低温雨雪冰冻虽然发生频次变化不明显,但极端性逐渐增强。④未来长江流域复合事件的研究和业务应继续完善监测评估体系,深入探究复合事件各因子的相互作用和关联关系,以及事件背后的天气气候系统、驱动因子和物理机制,增强未来变化预估能力;同时,加强跨学科研究以及复合事件对敏感行业和领域(如水资源、电力)的影响机理和评估方法研究。To gain a comprehensive view on the characteristics and changing trend of compound extreme climate events in the Changjiang River Basin,we systematically reviewed the progress of researches on definitions,classifications,indices,identification methods and historical results of compound events in the Changjiang River Basin based on a bibliometric analysis.The main conclusions are:①Compound events can be defined as two or more events occurring simultaneously or successively,which may amplify the impact,or even lead to extreme consequences.Based on spatiotemporal combinations,4 types of compound extreme climate events can be categorized in the Changjiang River Basin:same location-same time(e.g.compound dry and hot events,extensive cold-precipitation-freezing events),same location-different time(e.g.drought-flood abrupt alternations,flood-heatwave abrupt alternations),different location-same time,different location-different time.The former two types encompass relative richer research,and the last two types have been researched insufficiently.②The empirical way to identify a compound event is applying a certain index and a peak-over-threshold(POT)approach in both China and abroad;around 26 indices and more than 30 identification methods are frequently applied in the scientific literatures.③Changjiang River Basin is a hotspot for compound events.Since the 21st century,flood-heatwave abruption alternation events have been increasing the fastest in frequency,followed by compound dry and hot events and drought-flood abrupt alternation events.The extensive cold-precipitation-freezing event does not show an evident increase but gets more extreme.④Future research and business efforts should focus on improving the monitoring and assessment system for compound events in the Changjiang River Basin,exploring the interactions and relationships among various factors,and understanding the underlying weather systems,driving factors,and physical mechanisms to enhance predictive capabilities.Meanwhile,it is also suggested to

关 键 词：复合极端气候事件 高温干旱 低温雨雪冰冻 旱涝急转 洪水热浪 长江流域 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]