农业巨灾损失分摊体系的动力学模型优化研究  

Research on the Optimization of System Dynamics Model for Agricultural Catastrophe Loss Sharing System

作　　者：李欣炫 李炳萱 蒲成毅 Li Xinxuan;Li Bingxuan;Pu Chengyi(School of Insurance,Central University of Fiance and Economics,China Institute for Actuarial Science,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学保险学院,中国精算研究院,北京102206

出　　处：《黑龙江科学》2025年第5期24-27,31,共5页Heilongjiang Science

基　　金：科技创新2030“新一代人工智能”重大课题“不确定环境下农业大灾风险转移”(2022ZD0119504)。

摘　　要：探讨农业巨灾风险损失分摊机制的现状与挑战,从经营理论、组织模式、经营技术及经营模式层面分析其存在的问题,提出四层损失分摊模式,包括自留风险与农业保险、再保险、政府风险基金及紧急预案。通过模型建立与仿真分析,评估了不同年份的赔付率与风险分散效果,提出了体系持续运行的条件及调整巨灾保险市场供需平衡的建议。The study discusses the current status and challenges of agricultural catastrophe risk loss-sharing mechanisms,analyzes the problems in business theory,organizational model,operational technology and business model.Then the study proposes a four-tier loss-sharing model,which includes risk retention,agricultural insurance,reinsurance,government risk funds,and emergency preparedness plans.Through model establishment and simulation analysis,the study evaluates the loss ratios and risk diversification effects of different years,and puts forward the conditions for the sustained operation of the system and policy recommendations for adjusting the supply-demand balance in the catastrophe insurance market.

关 键 词：农业巨灾 损失分摊 自留风险 仿真分析 动力学模型 

分 类 号：F724.6[经济管理—产业经济] F326.6F832.6