夏季热带太平洋海表温度与北极海冰年际关系的年代际变化  

Interdecadal variations in the interannual relationship between tropical Pacific SST and Arctic sea ice in summer

作　　者：顾稷泰 曾刚[1] 李忠贤[1] GU JiTai;ZENG Gang;LI ZhongXian(State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Institute for Development and Programme Design,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气候系统预测与变化应对全国重点实验室/气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044 [2]中国气象局气象发展与规划院,北京100081

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2025年第1期1-10,共10页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：国家重点研发计划专项项目(2022YFF081704);国家自然科学基金项目(42175035,42175034)联合资助.

摘　　要：本研究利用1979—2023年哈德来中心HadISSTv1.1数据集的月平均海表温度、海冰密集度资料及NCEP/NCAR全球大气再分析资料,分析了夏季热带太平洋海表温度与北极海冰年际关系的年代际变化及其可能机理.结果表明,夏季热带中太平洋海表温度与同期波弗特海海冰关系在2001年前后发生了显著的年代际变化,特征为由相关性不显著转变为显著的正相关,其原因在于热带中太平洋海表正温度异常由弱转强.2001—2023年期间,由于热带中太平洋海表温度异常,增强了局地大气垂直运动,加强Rossby波的经向传播,在环流场上形成“+-+-”的经向四极波列,为波弗特海海冰正异常创造了有利的平流与辐射条件,使得热带中太平洋海表温度与波弗特海海冰关系表现为显著正相关.同时,我们也利用Liang-Kleeman信息流验证了热带中太平洋海表温度异常仅能单方面影响波弗特海海冰的变化.1979—2000年,由于热带中太平洋海表温度正异常偏弱,难以激发到达高纬地区的波列,因此热带中太平洋海表温度与波弗特海海冰相关性不显著.The present study investigates the interdecadal change in the interannual relationship between summer Sea Surface Temperature(SST)in the tropical Pacific and the Arctic Sea Ice Concentration(SIC)and its possible mechanism using 1979—2023 monthly SST and SIC data from Hadley Center and atmospheric reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR.It is found that the relationship between tropical Pacific SST and SIC in Beaufort Sea experienced an obvious interdecadal change from an insignificant correlation to a significant positive correlation around the year 2001.The reason for the change is the strengthened SST anomaly in central tropical Pacific.During the period of 2001—2023,convective activity in central tropical Pacific intensified due to SST anomaly,enhancing Rossby wave propagating from tropic to high-latitude.Enhanced Rossby wave propagation which formed a zonal circulation pattern of“+-+-”,creating favorable advection and radiation for SIC anomalies in Beaufort Sea.As a result,SIC in Beaufort Sea shows a significant positive correlation with SST in central tropical Pacific.Besides,we confirm that SST anomaly in central tropical Pacific can only unilaterally influence SIC in Beaufort Sea by using Liang-Kleeman information flow.Before the turning,due to weak SST anomaly in the central tropical Pacific,it is difficult to trigger a wave train reaching high latitudes,resulting in the correlation between SST in tropical Pacific and SIC in Beaufort Sea remain insignificant.

关 键 词：热带太平洋海表温度 波弗特海 年际关系 年代际变化 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]