农资价格波动对大宗农产品价格影响研究——基于对小麦、玉米、大豆、棉花主产区面板数据分析  

Research on the Impact of Agricultural Input Price Fluctuations on the Prices of Bulk Agricultural Products——Based on the panel data analysis of the main production areas of wheat,corn,soybeans and cotton

作　　者：王瑜鑫[1] WANG Yuxin

机构地区：[1]太原工业学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2024年第6期44-48,共5页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：2022年度山西省高等学校哲学社会科学研究项目“山西省生产性服务业与制造业高质量发展的耦合协调关系研究”(2022W144)

摘　　要：突破农业生产资料的资源约束、优化大宗农产品价格形成机制,对于构建稳定繁荣的农产品交易市场具有重要意义。本文选择2005-2023年全国小麦、玉米、大豆、棉花四个大宗农产品主产区面板数据,构建PVAR模型进行协整检验和正交化脉冲响应分析,明确农业生产过程中农药、肥料和农机装具价格变动与大宗农产品价格波动变化的内生关系。研究发现:(1)农药价格和农机装具价格波动对大宗农产品价格波动具有显著正向影响。其中,农药价格波动对大宗农产品价格波动的影响仅在当期显著,而农机装具价格波动对大宗农产品价格波动的影响具有明显的滞后性;(2)我国大宗农产品价格具有蛛网型发散特征,农业生产资料价格波动对大宗农产品价格波动的影响具有周期性和时变性。基于此,应优化农资产业链、落实“六稳”“六保”、实施持续性农业支持政策等,以稳定农业生产资料价格,减小农资价格波动对大宗农产品价格的冲击,促进国内农产品市场的稳定。Breaking through the resource constraints of agricultural production inputs and optimizing the price formation mechanism for bulk agricultural products are of great significance for constructing a stable and prosperous agricultural product trading market.This paper selects panel data from 2005 to 2023 for major production regions of four bulk agricultural products—wheat,corn,cotton,and soybeans—in China.A PVAR model is constructed to conduct cointegration tests and orthogonalized impulse response analysis,clarifying the endogenous relationship between price fluctuations of pesticides,fertilizers,and agricultural machinery during the agricultural production process and the price fluctuations of bulk agricultural products.The study finds that:(1)Fluctuations in pesticide prices and agricultural machinery prices have a significant positive impact on bulk agricultural product price fluctuations.Specifically,the impact of pesticide price fluctuations is only significant in the current period,while the impact of agricultural machinery price fluctuations exhibits a noticeable lag.(2)The prices of bulk agricultural products in China exhibit a cobweb-like divergence characteristic,and the impact of agricultural input price fluctuations on bulk agricultural product prices is periodic and time-varying.Based on these findings,it is recommended to optimize the agricultural input supply chain,implement the“Six Stabilities and Six Securities”policy,and adopt sustained agricultural support policies to stabilize agricultural input prices,mitigate their impact on bulk agricultural product prices,and promote the stability of the domestic agricultural market.

关 键 词：农业生产资料 生产资料价格 大宗农产品 PVAR模型 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]