省级地方政府行为与金融业增加值增长关系实证分析  

Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between the Behavior of Provincial Local Governments and the Growth of Added Value in the Financial Industry

作　　者：胡修林[1] Hu Xiulin

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行荆门市分行

出　　处：《开发性金融研究》2024年第5期39-52,共14页Development Finance Research

摘　　要：2023年,我国金融业增加值占GDP比重已达8%,在国际上属于较高水平。我国金融业增加值的增长有很多原因,但地方政府行为对其增长的影响仍鲜有讨论,而探究这些问题对于提升“有为政府”的现代化治理能力、提高金融支持实体经济高质量发展具有一定的现实意义。本文基于2005—2022年全国31个省级层面经济金融数据,运用熵值法构建了地方政府行为指数,实证检验了地方政府行为对金融业增加值的影响及其背后机制,研究发现:2007—2013年地方政府行为指数处在较高水平,但2013年后逐渐下降,2022年降至近年来最低水平;地方政府行为和金融业增加值呈倒U形关系,在西部地区和国有经济占比高的地区表现更为明显;地方政府行为与房地产市场发展呈倒U形关系,房地产市场是地方政府影响金融业增加值的重要路径;市场发展环境起到负向调节作用,弱化了地方政府行为和金融业增加值之间的倒U形关系。本文研究启示:应规范地方政府行为,防止过犹不及;要进一步稳定房地产市场,完善市场发展环境,促进有效市场和有为政府有机结合。In 2023,the added value of China’s financial industry will account for 8%of GDP,which is at a relatively high level internationally.There are many reasons for the growth of added value in China’s financial industry,but there is still little discussion on the impact of local government behavior on its growth.Exploring these issues has practical significance for enhancing the modern governance capacity of“capable governments”and improving financial support for high-quality development of the real economy.This article is based on economic and financial data from 31 provincial levels in China from 2005 to 2022.Using the entropy method,a local government behavior index was constructed to empirically test the impact of local government behavior on the added value of the financial industry and its underlying mechanisms.The study found that the local government behavior index was at a relatively high level from 2007 to 2013,but gradually decreased after 2013,reaching its lowest level in recent years in 2022;The inverted U-shaped relationship between local government behavior and the added value of the financial industry is more pronounced in western regions and areas with a high proportion of state-owned economy;There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between local government behavior and the development of the real estate market,and the real estate market is an important path for local government to influence the added value of the financial industry;The market development environment plays a negative regulatory role,weakening the inverted U-shaped relationship between local government behavior and the added value of the financial industry.The research inspiration of this article is that local government behavior should be regulated,and excessive involvement should be prevented;To further stabilize the real estate market,improve the market development environment,and promote the organic combination of an efficient market and a proactive government.

关 键 词：地方政府行为 金融业增加值 熵值法 倒U形关系 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] D630[政治法律—政治学]