Modeling the Causal Effects of Drought Disasters  

作　　者：Khadijeh NASERI 

机构地区：[1]Urmia Payame Noor University P.O.Box 19395-4697,Tehran,Iran

出　　处：《Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies》2024年第4期45-68,共24页中国城市与环境研究(英文)

摘　　要：Introducing a causal model to study the drought disaster around the world is the need of the planet today. There are many causes and effects of drought disasters around the world. These parameters,by affecting and being influenced by each other, cause the formation of processes that can make the experience of this event unpleasant. By planning and formulating appropriate strategies based on the results of this model, this event can be properly treated. For this purpose, in this research,the causal model of drought disasters is introduced. First, effective criteria or parameters in the occurrence of drought are identified. The tool used in this research is the modified fuzzy DEMATEL model. After responding to the direct relations matrix and defuzzification of this matrix, the causes and effects of the drought disaster are finally realized. The results of this study indicate that the criteria of global warming, mismanagement, and war are causal parameters or causes and the criteria of climate change, deforestation and soil degradation, dam construction,agriculture and livestock, and additional water needs are the parameters of the effect. Therefore,by establishing the conditions of each of the causal parameters, drought occurs or intensifies, and with the occurrence of drought, the effect parameters are created and show their effect on the causal parameters in the occurrence of drought.

关 键 词：DROUGHT environmental disasters causal effects fuzzy DEMATEL 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]