国际秩序的“历史回归”及其战略意涵  

The"Return of History"in the International Order and Its Strategic Implications

作　　者：孙兴杰 SUN Xingjie

机构地区：[1]中山大学国际关系学院,519000

出　　处：《国外社会科学前沿》2024年第10期3-15,共13页JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL SOCIAL SCIENCES

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“霸权兴衰与西方建构帝国体系的历史过程研究”(24A2D052)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：世界变局加速演进,速度不同,节奏不一。国际关系的“时间秩序”在重组,全球化在放缓,地缘政治变革在加速。“历史终结论”终结了,“历史回归”的讨论在回归。在加速、减速甚至回归的复杂场景中,需要更大的时空框架定位当下的国际关系。国际关系研究需要将时间找回来,因为在变局之下,静态的结构分析已经难以跟上历史性变迁的节奏了。长时段的“地缘时间”、中时段的“战略时间”以及短时段的“事件时间”叠合交错,共同塑造了国际秩序的时间结构,而突变的事件背后是战略时间,甚至是地缘时间的共振或者断裂。地缘政治格局变动,政治思潮涌动,大国博弈激烈,似乎历史在回归;然而,随着技术创新、产业迭代、城市化加速等,历史又在加速奔向不可预知的未来。在信息技术突飞猛进背景下,带有多样历史传统的人们挤在一个单一且透明的空间中,未来国际秩序的焦点或许就是协调处于不同时代的人们能够“同时”共处。The transformation of the global landscape is accelerating,yet with varying speeds and rhythms.The"temporal order"of international relations is being reconfigured:globalization is decelerating,while geopolitical shifts are gaining momentum.The"end of history"narrative has itself ended,and discussions about the"return of history"are resurging.Amidst this complex interplay of acceleration,deceleration,and regression,a broader spatiotemporal framework is required to contextualize contemporary international relations.Static structural analyses in the field of international relations now struggle to keep pace with the tempo of historic transformations.The temporal architecture of the international order is shaped by the overlapping and intersecting layers of long-term"geopolitical time,"medium-term"strategic time,"and short-term"event time."Behind abrupt events lie resonances—or ruptures—of strategic time,or even geopolitical time.As geopolitical structures shift,political ideologies surge,and great-power rivalries intensify,history appears to be"returning."Yet,driven by technological innovation,industrial evolution,and rapid urbanization,history simultaneously accelerates toward an unforeseeable future.With the explosive advancement of information technology,peoples imbued with diverse historical traditions now coexist in a singular,transparent space.A central challenge for the future international order may lie in reconciling the"simultaneous"coexistence of societies existing across distinct temporal epochs.

关 键 词：长时段 时间 历史回归 全球化 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]