基于Spearman等级相关系数的水光互补特性研究  

Research on the Complementary Characteristics of Hydro-solar Power based on Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient

作　　者：刘元收 傅充 柏建双 LIU Yuanshou;FU Chong;BAI Jianshuang(Yalong River Hydripower Development Company Ltd.,Chengdu 610051,China)

机构地区：[1]雅砻江流域水电开发有限公司,成都610051

出　　处：《大电机技术》2024年第S1期23-29,共7页Large Electric Machine and Hydraulic Turbine

摘　　要：我国正在构建以高比例可再生能源为特征的新型电力系统,由于新能源出力具有波动性,这使得对风光等新能源和水火等传统能源间的多能互补研究变得尤为重要。当前对大型多能互补能源基地的互补特性研究已较为丰富,但鲜有从微观层面对单一多能互补电站进行研究。本文基于Spearman等级相关系数对某典型水光互补电站的出力特性进行分析,发现Spearman等级相关系数能很好地描述水光出力互补过程,并进一步分析得出该电站日水光出力曲线的等级相关系数概率分布呈现强负相关,且服从广义极值分布,有力地从理论上证明该水光互补电站优良的互补特性,为电力系统可靠运行提供理论支撑。此外,本文还展望了Spearman等级相关系数在互补特性优化上的应用。China is currently constructing a new power system characterized by a high proportion of renewable energy.Due to the inherent variability of renewable energy output,research on the complementary characteristics between new energy sources such as wind and solar,and traditional energy sources such as hydro and thermal power,has become particularly crucial.While current studies on the complementary characteristics of large-scale multi-energy complementary energy bases are relatively abundant,there is a notable scarcity of research focusing on individual multi-energy complementary power stations at a micro level.This paper analyzes the output characteristics of a typical hydro-photovoltaic complementary power station based on the Spearman rank correlation coefficient.It is found that the Spearman rank correlation coefficient effectively describes the complementary process of hydro and photovoltaic power output.Furthermore,the analysis reveals that the probability distribution of the rank correlation coefficient for the daily hydro-photovoltaic output curve exhibits a strong negative correlation and follows a generalized extreme value distribution.This theoretically substantiates the excellent complementary characteristics of the hydro-photovoltaic complementary power station,providing a theoretical foundation for the reliable operation of the power system.Additionally,this paper explores the potential application of the Spearman rank correlation coefficient in optimizing complementary characteristics.

关 键 词：Spearman等级相关系数 水光互补电站 互补特性 广义极值分布 

分 类 号：TM622[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]