重大突发事件新媒体舆论智能决策情报体系构建  

Construction of an Intelligent Decision Intelligence System for New Media Public Opinion in Major Emergencies

作　　者：李恩来 王栋 赵长芬[2] LI Enlai;WANG Dong;ZHAO Changfen(School of Marxism,Guangxi Normal University,Guilin 541004,China;School of Marxism,Linyi University,Linyi 276000,China)

机构地区：[1]广西师范大学马克思主义学院,广西桂林541004 [2]临沂大学马克思主义学院,山东临沂276000

出　　处：《情报科学》2024年第10期90-96,共7页Information Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“马克思资本权力批判视域下我国资本风险治理研究”(22XKS002);国家社会科学基金项目“中国共产党基层组织凝聚力建设的百年历程及经验研究”(21BDJ034)

摘　　要：【目的/意义】为提升政府在重大突发事件中的响应效率与公信力,本研究旨在构建一套基于新媒体的舆论智能决策情报体系,通过精准捕捉公众诉求与关切,助力政府科学决策。【方法/过程】首先,利用Python爬虫技术从微博、博客、微信公众号等新媒体平台自动搜集相关的舆论情报;然后,运用LDA与K-means算法提取并分析主题,依据主题一致度整合信息。其次,结合舆情发展三阶段(增长期、减速期、饱和期)与主体、主题、情感三个态势层面,构建舆情态势分析模型以监测舆情动态。同时,建立舆论风险预警模型,通过历史数据学习进行舆情风险预测,并自动生成情报报告。最后,以2023年12月18日发生的“甘肃地震”事件为例,对所构建的重大突发事件新媒体舆论智能决策情报体系进行实证验证。【结果/结论】实证结果表明,该体系能够高效准确地提炼主题词,实现高质量的舆论信息整合,有效监测舆情发展态势,并精准预警舆情风险,为政府决策提供有力支持。【创新/局限】但案例的单一性可能限制了研究结论的普适性和广泛性,不同类型的重大突发事件在舆情传播和演变上可能存在差异。因此,未来研究将引入更多样化的案例来进一步验证和优化所构建的体系。【Purpose/significance】In order to enhance the response efficiency and credibility of the government in major emergencies,this study aims to construct a new media based public opinion intelligent decision-making intelligence system,which can accurately capture public demands and concerns and assist the government in making scientific decisions.【Method/process】First,use Python crawler technology to automatically collect relevant public opinion information from new media platforms such as microblog,blog,WeChat official account,etc;Then,LDA and K-means algorithms are used to extract and analyze topics,and information is integrated based on topic consistency;Secondly,combining the three stages of public opinion development(growth period,deceleration period,saturation period)with the three levels of subject,theme,and emotion,a public opinion situation analysis model is constructed to monitor the dynamics of public opinion;At the same time,establish a public opinion risk warning model,predict public opinion risks through historical data learning,and automatically generate intelligence reports;Finally,taking the"Gansu earthquake"event that occurred on December 18,2023 as an example,the constructed new media intelligent decision-making intelligence system for major emergencies is empirically verified.【Result/conclusion】The empirical results show that the system can efficiently and accurately extract keywords,achieve high-quality integration of public opinion information,effectively monitor the development trend of public opinion,and accurately warn of public opinion risks,providing strong support for government decision-making.【Innovation/limitation】However,the singularity of cases may limit the universality and breadth of research conclusions,and there may be differences in the dissemination and evolution of public opinion for different types of major emergencies.Therefore,future research will introduce more diverse cases to further validate and optimize the constructed system.

关 键 词：重大突发事件 新媒体舆论 智能决策 情报体系 舆情态势分析 风险预警 K-MEANS算法 Logistic回归分析 

分 类 号：G206.3[文化科学—传播学]