海南省2012—2022年鼠密度与气象因素的相关性  

Correlation on rodent density and meteorological factors in Hainan Province from 2012 to 2022

作　　者：刘璞瑜 吴群 孙定炜[1] 刘莹[1] 欧婷婷[1] 曾雪霞[1] LIU Puyu;WU Qun;SUN Dingwei;LIU Ying;OU Tingting;ZENG Xuexia(Hainan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Haikou,Hainan 570203,Hainan)

机构地区：[1]海南省疾病预防控制中心,海南海口570203

出　　处：《中国热带医学》2024年第12期1507-1512,共6页China Tropical Medicine

基　　金：中华预防医学会履职运行项目;海南省自然科学基金项目(No.821MS0844);海南省科技专项(No.ZDYF2013SHFZ134)

摘　　要：目的 了解气象因素与海南省鼠密度的相关性,为海南省鼠害防控及鼠传疾病的防制提供科学依据。方法 收集海南省2012—2022年鼠密度监测资料和气象资料,采用Pearson相关或Spearman秩相关系数分析鼠密度与各气象因素之间的关系,采用广义相加模型分析气象因素对鼠密度的影响及其滞后效应。结果 海南省2012—2022年鼠密度为1.96%~4.32%,平均密度为3.47%,无明显变化趋势(F_(趋势)=4.00,P=0.08),褐家鼠为海南省的优势鼠种。月平均日照时长和月平均降水量对当月鼠密度有影响(P<0.05),鼠密度随月平均日照时长的增长而升高;月降雨量在300 mm以内时,鼠密度比较平稳,月降水量为300~500 mm,鼠密度随月降雨量的升高而降低,月降水量超过500 mm后,月鼠密度又呈现随之升高的趋势。月平均气压、月平均日照时长、月蒸发量、月降水量、月平均气温和月相对湿度对鼠密度的影响均呈现滞后效应(P<0.05)。滞后1个月的鼠密度随着月平均气压的升高而降低;滞后3个月的鼠密度随着月平均日照时长的增加先降低再升高,拐点在150 h;滞后3个月的鼠密度随着月蒸发量的增加而降低;月降水量对滞后1个月的鼠密度影响区间主要在200~300 mm;滞后3个月的鼠密度随着温度上升而升高,在28℃后平稳下降;滞后1个月的鼠密度随着相对湿度的增加而降低。结论 月平均日照时长与月降水量对当月鼠密度有一定影响,且月平均气压、月平均日照时长、月蒸发量、月降水量、月平均气温和月相对湿度对鼠密度均有滞后效应。Objective To investigate the impact of meteorological factors on rodent density in Hainan Province,and to provide scientific evidence for preventing and controlling rodent infestations and rodent-borne diseases in Hainan Province.Methods Data on rodent density and meteorological factors in Hainan Province from 2012 to 2022 were collected.Pearson's correlation or Spearman's rank correlation coefficients were used to analyze the relationship between rodent density and meteorological factors,and a generalized additive model was applied to assess the impact of meteorological factors on rodent density and their lag effects.Results From 2012 to 2022,the rat density in Hainan Province fluctuated between 1.96%and 4.32%,with an average density of 3.47%,showing no significant upward or downward trend(F_(trend)=4.00,P=0.08).The brown rat was identified as the predominant rodent species in Hainan Province.Monthly average sunshine duration and monthly average precipitation impacted the current month's rodent density(P<0.05),with rodent density increasing with the growth of monthly average sunshine duration.When monthly precipitation was within 300 mm,rodent density remained relatively stable;however,with monthly precipitation between 300 and 500 mm,rodent density decreased with an increase in monthly precipitation,while exceeding 500 mm,monthly rat density showed an upward trend.Monthly average atmospheric pressure,sunshine duration,evaporation,precipitation,average temperature,and relative humidity all exhibited lag effects on rodent density(P<0.05).Rodent density lagged by one month decreased with an increase in average atmospheric pressure;rodent density lagged by three months initially decreased and then increased with an increase in monthly average sunshine duration,with a turning point at 150 hours;rodent density lagged by three months decreased with an increase in monthly evaporation;the impact interval of monthly precipitation on rodent density one month later was mainly between 200 and 300 mm;rodent density lagged by

关 键 词：鼠密度 气象因素 广义相加模型 

分 类 号：R184.35[医药卫生—流行病学]