金融开放与跨境资本流动稳定性:基于“制度开放”视角  

Financial Openness and Stability of Cross-border Capital Flows:Based on the Perspective of"Institutional Openness"

作　　者：李平 何非凡 LI Ping;HE Feifan

机构地区：[1]山东理工大学经济与管理学部 [2]山东理工大学经济学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2025年第2期28-42,58,M0002,共17页World Economy Studies

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“全球价值链、国际贸易政策体系‘双重构’的影响与应对研究”(批准号:22JZD041)资助。

摘　　要：文章将金融开放内涵从“业务开放”拓展至“制度开放”层面,据此重新测算了各国的金融开放指数,结合IMF-IFS数据库2000年第二季度至2021年第四季度的国际投资头寸数据,对金融开放是跨境资本流动扰动器的传统观点提出了挑战。基准结果表明,金融开放不仅不是跨境资本流动的扰动器,反而呈现出稳定器特征。异质性分析表明,发达国家金融开放对资本流动波动的正向外部性更强,同时市场主导型金融结构国家金融开放对跨境资本流动稳定性的提升作用更为明显。机制检验结果证实金融发展水平、营商环境和“金融结构-金融监管”匹配度是金融开放影响跨境资本流动稳定性的重要渠道。拓展性分析发现,经济政策不确定性环境强化了金融开放对资本流动波动的抑制作用,极端金融事件冲击下金融开放对资本流动波动的平抑作用依然稳健,中国的金融开放显著平抑了来自于其他国家的直接投资和组合投资流入波动。In this paper,the connotation of financial openness is expanded from"business openness"to"institutional openness",leading to a recalculation of the financial openness index for various countries.Utilizing international investment position data of IMFIFS database from the second quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2021,this study challenges the traditional view that financial openness acts as a disruptor but rather a stabilizer of such flows.The baseline results indicate that financial openness is not a disruptor of cross-border capital flows,but a stabilizer.Heterogeneity analysis shows that developed countries have stronger positive externalities in capital flow fluctuations,while countries with market-dominated financial structure have a more obvious impact on the stability of cross-border capital flows.The results of the mechanism test confirm that the level of financial development,the business environment and the alignment between"financial structure and financial supervision"are important channels through which a high degree of financial openness influences the stability of cross-border capital flows.The expansion analysis finds that an uncertain economic policy environment strengthens the inhibitory effect of financial opening on capital flow volatility,and this inhibitory effect remains stable even under the impact of extreme financial events.China′s financial opening has significantly mitigated the volatility of bilateral direct investment and portfolio investment inflows from other countries.

关 键 词：金融开放 制度开放 资本流动稳定性 “金融结构-金融监管”匹配度 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]