本土市场规模、数字化投入与全球价值链风险:基于供给端冲击视角  

Domestic Market Size,Digital Inputs and Global Value Chain risk:Based on supply-side shock perspective

作　　者：王岚[1] 陈影 程志宙 WANG LAN;CHEN Ying;CHENG Zhizhou

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学数字经济与管理学院 [2]天津财经大学经济学院 [3]中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2025年第2期105-119,M0004,共16页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“数字贸易规则对全球价值链重构的影响及其优化路径研究”(项目编号:21BGJ025)。

摘　　要：在大国博弈、地缘政治等不确定因素影响下,全球价值链(简称GVCs)呈现区域化、短链化、归(友)岸化等特征,断链风险加剧。如何充分发挥中国市场规模优势以及数字产业优势以降低价值链风险是新形势下亟待解决的问题。文章在基于供给端冲击视角测度价值链风险的基础上,利用2000—2014年42国制造业样本数据,深入探讨本土市场规模和数字化投入对GVCs风险的协同效应。分析发现,本土市场规模通过促进技术创新、优化资源配置以及提升供需匹配效率等渠道显著抑制价值链风险,数字化投入通过强化风险抑制效果扮演“催化剂”角色。拓展分析表明,激烈的行业竞争和稳定的国内环境有助于本土市场规模更好地发挥风险抑制效应;在低信息不对称和国内数据流动限制相对宽松的国家,数字化投入能更加有效地激发本土市场规模对价值链风险的抑制作用。文章的研究为新发展格局下中国依托国内大市场,以数字经济为抓手提升全球价值链安全提供了重要的理论支撑和经验证据。Under the influence of great power games,geopolitics and other uncertainties,GVCs are exhibiting the characteristics of regionalisation,shorter chain,and a trend towards"friend-shoring",and the risk of chain breakage has also intensified.How to fully leverage China′s market scale advantage and digital industry advantage to reduce the value chain risks is an urgent problem to be solved in this new situation.Based on supply-side shock perspective to measure value chain risk,this paper utilizes sample data from the manufacturing sectors of 42 countries from 2000 to 2014 to explore the synergistic effect of domestic market size and digital inputs on global value chain risk in depth.The analysis finds that local market size significantly suppresses value chain risks by promoting technological innovation,optimising resource allocation,and enhancing the efficiency of supply-demand matching,while digital inputs act as a catalyst by strengthening this risk-suppressing effect.Extended analysis shows that fierce competition and a stable domestic environment help domestic market size to better suppress risk.In countries with low information asymmetry and relatively loose restrictions on domestic data flow,digital inputs can more effectively stimulate the risk-suppressing effect of domestic market size on value chain risk.In the Chinese context,digital inputs and local market size have a stronger dampening effect on global value chain risk than the global average.This study provides important theoretical support and empirical evidence for China to enhance the security of global value chains by relying on its large domestic market and using the digital economy as a tool under the new development pattern.

关 键 词：本土市场规模 数字化投入 风险敞口 制造业 

分 类 号：F414[经济管理—产业经济] F49