双边货币互换协议能够促进中国出口产品质量提升吗?  

Can Bilateral Currency Swap Agreements Enhance the Quality of China′s Export Products?

作　　者：金祥义 梁涛 JIN Xiangyi;LIANG Tao

机构地区：[1]兰州大学经济学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2025年第2期120-134,M0004,共16页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“数字金融驱动中国企业出口价值链升级的机制和政策研究”(项目编号:72203083);甘肃省基础研究计划-软科学专项“人工智能促进甘肃省污染治理提效的机理研究:作用依据与政策分析”(项目编号:23JRZA373);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“数字技术发展对出口贸易增长的动能研究:作用逻辑和提升路径”(项目编号:23XJC790008)的资助。

摘　　要：文章以2009年以来中国与各国签署的双边货币互换协议作为政策冲击,使用2002—2020年BACI数据库以及中国人民银行年度《货币政策执行报告》等数据,运用多期双重差分模型实证检验该货币互换协议对于中国出口产品质量的影响。研究发现,双边货币互换协议的签署能够促进中国出口产品质量的升级,稳健性检验进一步证明了结果的可靠性。异质性分析表明,双边货币互换带来的出口产品质量提升作用在资本账户开放度较高国家和“一带一路”合作国家中较为显著。机制分析表明,双边货币互换协议能够通过抑制进口国货币的汇率波动风险以及提高中国进口中间品质量从而实现中国出口产品质量的升级。文章结论表明,在新时代的背景下,双边货币互换协议对于进一步推动中国对外贸易高质量发展、优化出口产品结构以及增强国际市场竞争力具有重要的现实意义。This paper investigates the impact of bilateral currency swap agreements signed by China with various countries since 2009 on the quality of Chinese export products,treating these agreements as a policy shock.Utilizing data from the BACI database covering the period 2002 to 2020 and the people′s bank of China′s annual reports on monetary policy implementation,the study employs a multi-period difference-in-differences model for empirical analysis.The results demonstrate that the implementation of bilateral currency swap agreements significantly contributes to the enhancement of the quality of China′s export products.Robustness checks further validate the reliability of these findings.Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the positive effect of currency swaps on export quality is more pronounced in countries with higher capital account openness and in nations along the Belt and Road Initiative.Mechanism analysis reveals that bilateral currency swap agreements facilitate the upgrading of export product quality by mitigating exchange rate volatility risks associated with the currencies of trading partners and by improving the quality of intermediate goods imported by China.The findings suggest that bilateral currency swap agreements play a crucial role in improving the quality of China′s exports.In the context of the new era,these agreements are of significant practical importance for promoting the high-quality development of China′s foreign trade,optimizing the structure of export products,and enhancing competitiveness in international markets.

关 键 词：出口产品质量 双边货币互换协议 双重差分模型 贸易高质量发展 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F752.62F273.2