2016—2023年贵州省肺结核流行特征及空间聚集分析  

Epidemiological characteristics and spatial clustering analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis,Guizhou Province,2016-2023

作　　者：马晓雪 周建 王大福 李福栋 郭生琼[1] 罗珑 陈再平[1] 刘益宁 陈美 李进岚[1] MA Xiao-xue;ZHOU Jian;WANG Da-fu;LI Fu-dong;GUO Sheng-qiong;LUO Long;CHEN Zai-ping;LIU Yi-ning;CHEN Mei;LI Jin-lan(Tuberculosis Prevention and Control Institute of Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guiyang,Guizhou 550004,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]贵州省疾病预防控制中心结核病防治研究所,贵州贵阳550004 [2]贵州医科大学公共卫生与健康学院

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2025年第4期597-602,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：贵州省发改委省级基本建设前期工作项目(2020-181-131);贵州省疾病预防控制中心2024年青年科学基金项目(2024-E-7)。

摘　　要：目的了解贵州省肺结核流行特征和空间聚集性,为进一步降低肺结核流行提供科学依据。方法以2016—2023年结核病信息管理系统中贵州省的肺结核发病监测数据为依据,描述和分析全省肺结核发病在时间、人群和地区中的分布特征,并采用全局和局部自相关分析探测全省发病聚集重点地区和聚集类型。结果2016—2023年贵州省肺结核年均报告发病率为100.28/10万,报告发病率以年均6.82%的下降速率,从130.66/10万降至82.90/10万(趋势χ^(2)=9647.375,P<0.001)。2016—2023年男女报告发病率分别从165.18/10万、93.89/10万下降至102.32/10万和62.58/10万(趋势χ^(2)=6968.956、2656.114,P均<0.001);<20岁、20~39岁、40~59岁和≥60岁年龄组的报告发病均呈下降趋势(趋势χ^(2)=3021.424、3563.783、2477.462、1184.117,P均<0.001);年均报告发病率男性、≥60岁年龄组分别高于其他分组(χ^(2)=18845.452、65957.048,P均<0.001),农民占比69.46%高于其他职业(χ^(2)=732538.160,P<0.001),同时医务人员和教师人群发病占比升高(趋势χ^(2)=61.539、45.872,P均<0.001)。空间相关分析显示,全省肺结核发病呈现聚集分布(Moran I=0.293,Z=4.607,P<0.001),高-高聚集地区整体集中在黔西南州的望谟县、册亨县等地。结论近年贵州省肺结核防治工作取得一定的成效,但目前防控形势仍较严峻。男性、≥60岁、农民、医务人员和教师等是重点发病人群,黔西南州的望谟、册亨等经济和生活水平较落后是发病重点地区。Objective To understand the prevalence and spatial clustering characteristics of tuberculosis in Guizhou Province,and provide scientific basis for further reducing the prevalence of tuberculosis.Methods Based on the incidence monitoring data of tuberculosis in Guizhou Province in the tuberculosis information management system from 2016 to 2023,this study described and analyzed the distribution characteristics of tuberculosis incidence in the whole province in time,population and region,and used spatial clustering to analyze the key regions and types of incidence rate clustering in the province.Results From 2016 to 2023,the annual average reported incidence rate of tuberculosis in Guizhou Province was 100.28/100000,and the reported incidence rate declined at an average annual rate of 6.82%,from 130.66/100000 in 2016 to 82.90/100000(trendχ^(2)=9647.38,P<0.001).From 2016 to 2023,the reported incidence rate of men and women will decrease from 165.18/100000,93.89/100000 to 102.32/100000 and 62.58/100000 respectively(trendχ^(2)=6968.96,2828.21,all P<0.001).The reported incidence rates in the age groups of<20 years old,20-39 years old,40-59 years old and≥60 years old all showed a downward trend(trendχ^(2)=3021.42,3563.78,2477.46,1184.20,all P<0.001).The average annual reported incidence rate of men and age groups≥60 years old were higher than others(χ^(2)=18845.45,65957.05,all P<0.001)and the proportion of farmers was 69.46%higher than that of other occupations(χ^(2)=732538.16,P<0.001).At the same time,the proportion of medical staff and teachers increased(trendχ^(2)=61.54,45.87,all P<0.001).Spatial clustering analysis showed that tuberculosis in the province presented a clustered distribution(Moran I=0.293,Z=4.607,P<0.001),with high-high clustered areas mainly concentrated in Wangmo County,Ceheng County and other areas in Qiannan Prefecture.Conclusion In recent years,the prevention and control of tuberculosis in Guizhou Province has achieved certain results,but the current situation of prevention and control

关 键 词：肺结核 流行 空间聚集 

分 类 号：R521[医药卫生—内科学]