2017-2023年深圳市龙岗区气温对流行性感冒发病的影响  

The impact of temperature on the incidence of influenza in Longgang district,Shenzhen from 2017 to 2023

作　　者：李武 曾愉 王小丽[1] 刘兰兰 庄春燕[1] 谭惠玲 兰全学 韦厚明[1] LI Wu;ZENG Yu;WANG Xiaoli;LIU Lanlan;ZHUANG Chunyan;TAN Huilin;LAN Quanxue;WEI Houming(Department of Immunization Planning and Management,Shenzhen Longgang Center for Disease Control,Shenzhen,Guangdong 518172,China;The First Phase of the Field Epidemiology Training Project in Longgang District,LGFETP-1,Shenzhen,Guangdong 518172,China;National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Disease,the Third People's Hospital of Shenzhen,the Second Affiliated Hospital,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,Guangdong 518112,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳市龙岗区疾病预防控制中心免疫规划管理科,广东深圳518172 [2]龙岗区第一期现场流行病学培训项目,广东深圳518172 [3]国家感染性疾病临床医学研究中心,深圳市第三人民医院(南方科技大学第二附属医院),广东深圳518112

出　　处：《热带医学杂志》2025年第1期118-123,共6页Journal of Tropical Medicine

基　　金：广东省自然科学基金(2020A1515010778);深圳市龙岗区科技创新专项资金医疗卫生技术攻关项目(LGKCYLWS2023033)。

摘　　要：目的分析深圳市龙岗区日均气温对流行性感冒(简称流感)发病的影响,为流感防控措施的制定提供理论依据。方法从国家疾病预防控制中心信息系统获取2017-2023年龙岗区逐日流感发病数据,深圳市气象局和生态环境局获取龙岗区同期气象数据和空气质量指数,用Spearman相关探索变量间相关性,用分布滞后非线性模型分析日均气温对流感发病的影响。结果共报告166881例流感病例,男女比为1.20∶1,6~<18岁占41.63%;日均气温与流感发病数的相关性最大(r=-0.22,P<0.001)。日均气温与流感发病数在不同滞后时长呈非线性暴露效应关系;气温越低危险效应越大,气温6.5℃时,累积滞后14 d RR值为4.24(95%CI:2.64~6.80);气温越高保护效应越大,气温30.0℃时,累积滞后14 d RR值为0.47(95%CI:0.41~0.49);暴露于6.5℃累积滞后14 d时,0~<6岁组累积危险效应高于其余年龄组,甲乙型流感病毒同时感染的危险效应(RR=4.25)高于甲型(RR=3.39)或乙型流感病毒单独感染(RR=1.48);全人群流感发病数归因于低温(6.5℃≤T<24.6℃)暴露占20.41%,归因于极低温(6.5℃≤T<14.5℃)暴露占4.07%。结论气温影响深圳市龙岗区的流感发病,总体呈低温危险效应,高温保护效应,在极端低温时,对0~<6岁年龄组与甲乙型流感病毒同时感染影响最大。Objective To explore the impact of daily average temperature on the incidence of influenza in Longgang district,Shenzhen.Methods Daily influenza data was obtained from the National Center for Disease Control and Preventions information system from 2017 to 2023 in Longgang district;meteorological data and air quality index for Longgang district of the same period was obtained from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau and the Ecological Environment Bureau.Spearman correlation was used to explore the correlation between variables,and the distributed lag nonlinear model was used to analyze the impact of daily average temperature on influenza incidence.Results A total of 166881 cases of influenza were reported,with a male-to-female ratio of 1.20∶1,and the age group of 6~<18 years old accounted for 41.63%of the cases.The daily average temperature showed the strongest correlation with the daily number of influenza cases(r=-0.22,P<0.001).The daily average temperature and the daily number of influenza cases had a non-linear exposure-effect relationship at different lag times.The lower the temperature,the greater the risk effect.For example,at a temperature of 6.5℃,the cumulative 14-day relative risk(RR)was 4.24(95%CI:2.64-6.80).Conversely,the higher the temperature,the greater the protective effect.For instance,at a temperature of 30.0℃,the cumulative 14-day RR was 0.47(95%CI:0.41-0.49).When exposed to a cumulative lag of 14 days at 6.5℃,the cumulative risk effect for the 0~<6 age group was higher than for other age groups.The risk effect of simultaneous infection with type A and B influenza viruses(RR=4.25)was higher than that of type A(RR=3.39)or type B influenza virus alone(RR=1.48).The total number of influenza cases attributed to low temperature exposure(6.5℃≤T<24.6℃)in the entire population was 20.41%,while those attributed to extreme low temperature exposure(6.5℃≤T<14.5℃)accounted for 4.07%.Conclusions The temperature had an impact on the incidence of influenza in Longgang district,Shenzhen.Overal

关 键 词：气温 流行型感冒 分布滞后非线性模型 滞后效应 累积效应 

分 类 号：R183.3[医药卫生—流行病学]