节气变化与普内住院人数波动的中医视角探析:基于天人合一理论的实证研究  

Analysis of the solar terms changes and the fluctuation of the number of inpatients in general internal medicine department from the perspective of traditional Chinese medicine:an empirical study based on the theory of unity of heaven and man

作　　者：魏冕 WEI Mian(Shu Yang Hospital of TCM,Suqian 223600,China)

机构地区：[1]沭阳县中医院,江苏宿迁223600

出　　处：《临床医学研究与实践》2025年第9期11-14,共4页Clinical Research and Practice

摘　　要：目的探讨天人合一理论框架下,节气变化对普内住院人数波动的影响。方法系统性收集2020—2023年普内住院人数数据,对天人合一理论与节气变化关系的适用性进行论证,以时间序列分析构建求和自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型,并对各个节气的住院人数等数据进行拟合。结果采用ARIMA模型对数据进行拟合,通过最大似然估计法,得出了ARIMA(1,0,1)模型的自回归系数α1为-0.998,其伴随的标准误为0.010。该系数的t=-98.272,对应的P<0.001,表明该系数在统计学上高度显著。此外,α1的95%CI为(-1.018~-0.979),进一步确认了可靠性。结论节气变化与普内住院人数波动存在显著的内在联系与规律性,从中医天人合一理论出发,能更好地诠释自然环境改变对人体健康的影响。Objective To explore the influence of solar terms changes on the fluctuation of the number of inpatients in general internal medicine department under the framework of the theory of unity of heaven and man.Methods The data of the number of inpatients in general internal medicine department from 2020 to 2023 were systematically collected to demonstrate the applicability of the theory of unity of heaven and man and the solar terms changes.The autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was constructed by time series analysis,and the number of inpatients in each solar term was fitted.Results The ARIMA model was used to fit the data,through the maximum likelihood estimation method,the autoregressive coefficientα1 of the ARIMA(1,0,1)model was-0.998,and the accompanying standard error was 0.010.The coefficient of t=-98.272,the corresponding P<0.001,indicated that the coefficient was highly statistically significant.In addition,the 95%CI ofα1 was(-1.018~-0.979),which further confirmed the reliability.Conclusion There is a significant internal relationship and regularity between the solar terms changes and the fluctuation of the number of inpatients in general internal medicine department.Starting from the theory of unity of heaven and man in traditional Chinese medicine,it can better explain the influence of natural environment change on human health.

关 键 词：天人合一 节气变化 住院人数 中医理论 

分 类 号：R197.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]