养老金统筹改革与城投债风险溢价研究——来自中央调剂制度实施的经验证据  

Research on Pension Pooling Reform and Urban Investment Bond Risk Premium: Empirical Evidence from the Implementation of the Central Adjustment System

作　　者：康书隆[1] 李昊亮 KANG Shulong;LI Haoliang

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《金融监管研究》2025年第2期20-40,共21页Financial Regulation Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“人口老龄化对商业银行风险承担的影响、机制与对策研究”(项目编号24AJY011)的资助。

摘　　要：基本养老保险全国统筹的实施,能够有效缓解老龄化严重地区政府的支出压力。鉴此,进一步考察政府财力改善能否降低隐性债务风险,有助于更为全面地评估养老金统筹改革的作用。本文以2018年7月实施的企业职工基本养老保险基金中央调剂制度作为准自然实验,实证检验了养老金统筹改革对城投债风险溢价的影响效果与作用机制。研究发现,中央调剂制度实施后,高社保负担地区城投债的风险溢价显著降低。在替换处理变量度量方法,以及将地方政府财政压力、债券担保特征和同时期其他政策干扰等因素纳入回归模型后,实证结果依然稳健。机制分析表明,中央调剂制度是通过改善高社保负担地区的财政状况降低城投债的信用风险利差,带动城投债风险溢价水平下降。异质性分析表明,中央调剂制度的实施,在财政基础薄弱、金融资源禀赋差、融资平台资质差的地区,对降低城投债风险溢价的作用更为显著。本文的政策启示在于:合理划分基本养老保险的中央与地方财政事权与支出责任,能够起到化解隐性债务风险、改善金融机构资产质量的作用。The implementation of national coordination of basic pension insurance can effectively alleviate the expenditure pressure on governments in regions with severe aging populations. Therefore, further investigation into whether improvements in government ffnancial capacity can reduce hidden debt risks is helpful for a more comprehensive assessment of the role of pension coordination reform. This paper uses the central adjustment system for corporate employees' basic pension insurance fund, implemented in July 2018, as a quasi-natural experiment to empirically test the impact and mechanism of pension coordination reform on the risk premium of local government ffnancing vehicle(LGFV) bonds. The study ffnds that after the implementation of the central adjustment system, the risk premium of LGFV bonds in regions with high social security burdens signiffcantly decreased. After substituting alternative measures for the treatment variable and incorporating factors such as local government ffscal pressure, bond guarantee characteristics, and potential interference from other policies during the same period into the regression model, the empirical results remain robust. Mechanism analysis shows that the central adjustment system reduces the credit risk spread of LGFV bonds by improving the ffscal conditions of high-social-security-burden regions, thereby leading to a decrease in their risk premium. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the implementation of the central adjustment system has a more signiffcant impact on reducing the LGFV bond risk premium in regions with weak ffscal foundations, poor ffnancial resource endowment, and lowerquality financing platforms. The policy implication of this paper is that a reasonable division of fiscal powers and expenditure responsibilities between the central and local governments in basic pension insurance can help mitigate hidden debt risks and improve the asset quality of ffnancial institutions.

关 键 词：中央调剂制度 养老金统筹改革 城投债 风险溢价 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]