中国养老金融发展的规模测算与实施路径研究  

A Study on the Scale Estimation and Implementation Path of China's Ageing Finance Development

作　　者：宋效军 黄颖斐 邓钰欣 SONG Xiaojun;HUANG Yingfei;DENG Yuxin

机构地区：[1]建行研修中心(研究院) [2]中国建设银行博士后科研工作站

出　　处：《金融监管研究》2025年第2期56-73,共18页Financial Regulation Research

摘　　要：推动养老金融高质量发展是积极应对人口老龄化和建设金融强国的重要内容和关键路径。本文从人口结构变化带来的代际养老压力、三支柱养老体系结构性失衡、以房产为主的居民财富结构限制养老需求释放,以及养老供给不足难以满足多层次养老需求等维度,系统分析了我国养老金融发展面临的现实挑战;同时,对国外养老金融发展经验进行了分析总结。本文通过分解老年人退休后养老支出和动态估计居民财富中养老资产的配置比例,分别构建了测算全社会养老资金总需求和居民养老总资产规模的理论模型,并基于模型对我国不同情境下未来居民养老资金总需求和养老总资产规模进行了测算。最后,本文立足我国养老金融发展面临的现实挑战并结合国际经验,提出了我国养老金融发展的推进路径和应对策略。Promoting the high-quality development of ageing ffnance is an important component and key path to actively cope with population ageing and build a strong ffnancial country. This paper systematically analyzes the realistic challenges faced by China's ageing ffnance from the perspectives of trans-generational pension pressure brought about population structure, structural imbalance of the current pension system, the residents wealth structure dominated by real estate restricting the release of ageing demand, and insufficient supply of ageing industry that fails to meet multi ageing demand. Meanwhile, this paper analyzes and summarizes the abundant experience of foreign ageing ffnance. By decomposing the total demand of post-retirement living expenditures and estimating the proportion of residents' wealth ffnally transferred to elderly care, this paper respectively constructs theoretical models for estimating the total ageing demand in the whole society and the total scale of residents' ageing-related assets. Finally, based on the previous analysis, this paper puts forward the implementation path and coping strategies for China's ageing ffnance.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 养老金融 养老产业 高质量发展 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]