公开市场操作、央地债务占比与财政货币政策组合  

Open Market Operations, Central-Local Debt Ratio, and Fiscal-Monetary Policy Coordination

作　　者：崔百胜[1] 韦烨 CUI Baisheng;WEI Ye

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学商学院

出　　处：《金融监管研究》2025年第2期93-114,共22页Financial Regulation Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“综合、一致与协调框架下的跨周期政策设计与逆周期调节研究”(项目编号21AJY024)的资助。

摘　　要：本文构建了一个中央银行在二级市场向金融中介机构买卖国债的DSGE模型,引入了存在债务违约风险的地方政府和没有债务违约风险的中央政府,还创新性地引入了一个国家总债务模型和中央政府债务占比变量,以此探讨中央银行公开市场操作、央地债务占比与财政货币政策对宏观经济的影响。研究发现:(1)中央银行购买国债会释放流动性,增加产出和投资,提高生产能力,推升基准利率与债券发行利率,但也会面临更高的风险溢价与资金成本,增加商业银行的流动性约束,使其净资产因负债扩张而下降。(2)当地方债务面临违约风险时,中央银行公开市场操作对产出的影响不及预期,投资相对减少,同时债券价格下跌还会促使地方政府发行更多的债券以弥补财政赤字。(3)通过改变央地债务结构,增加中央政府的债务占比,缓解地方政府债务上升压力的同时也提升消费者福利,但也会导致中央财政赤字增加。(4)扩张性财政政策和中央银行公开市场操作的协调配合,可进一步提升产出,中央银行通过购买国债注入流动性,可降低金融市场的资金压力,减缓债券价格下跌,更好地配合政府发债,并可缓解单纯扩张性财政政策引发的资源竞争,提升消费者的福利。This paper develops a DSGE model in which the central bank engages in open market operations by purchasing and selling government bonds in the secondary market through ffnancial intermediaries. The model incorporates both local governments, which are subject to default risk, and a central government with no default risk. Innovatively, a national total debt model and a variable for the proportion of central government debt are introduced to explore the impact of central bank open market operations, the debt ratio between central and local governments, and the combination of ffscal and monetary policies on the macroeconomy. The key ffndings are as follows:(1) Central bank purchases of government bonds inject liquidity into the ffnancial system, leading to higher output and investment, increased production capacity, and an upward adjustment of both the benchmark interest rate and bond issuance yields. However, these operations also elevate risk premiums and funding costs,tightening liquidity constraints for commercial banks and reducing their net assets due to balance sheet expansion.(2) When local government debt faces default risk, the impact of central bank open market operations on output is weaker than anticipated, investment declines, and falling bond prices incentivize local governments to issue more debt to cover fiscal deficits.(3) Adjusting the central-local debt composition by increasing the central government's debt share can help alleviate the rising pressure of local government debt while also enhancing consumer welfare. However, this strategy also leads to an expansion in the central government's ffscal deffcit.(4) Under the coordinated implementation of expansionary ffscal policy and central bank open market operations,output will further increase. By purchasing government bonds and injecting liquidity, the central bank can ease ffnancial market funding constraints, mitigate declines in bond prices, and better support government debt issuance. Moreover, this coordination can alleviate the resource co

关 键 词：公开市场操作 地方政府债务 财政政策 货币政策 DSGE模型 

分 类 号：F832.0[经济管理—金融学] F820.2