美国公众对华态度中的内群体偏好与党派效应:社会认同理论的应用与检验  

In-group Favoritism and Partisan Effects in American Public Attitudes Toward China:An Application and Test of Social Identity Theory

作　　者：徐迪[1,2] 黄莲丽 郑韶武 XU Di;HUANG Lian-li;ZHENG Shao-wu

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学教育部大数据与国家传播战略实验室,湖北武汉430074 [2]华中科技大学新闻与信息传播学院,湖北武汉430074 [3]人民日报社《国家治理》杂志,北京100733

出　　处：《未来传播》2025年第1期2-14,116,共14页Future Communication

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“人类命运共同体视阈下中国国家形象在西方主流媒体的百年传播研究”(19ZDA322);中央高校基本科研业务费资助专项“海外涉华舆论场研究”(2023WKYXZX007);中国科协创新战略研究院科研项目“我国前沿科技领域公开发表论文和宣传报道引发美西方借此炒作或打压问题研究”。

摘　　要：近年来,中美战略博弈更加激烈,美国对华战略日渐成为美国国内政治生态的重要组成部分。关注美国公众的中国威胁感知呈现何种状态,对中美关系的走向具有重要意义。本研究以“寰球民意指数”(2023)调查数据为基础,探究美国公众中国威胁感知,以及其如何受到内群体偏好、中国实力认知、党派差异等因素的综合影响。分析发现,美国公众的中国威胁感知总体较为复杂,不同性别、不同年龄段的美国公众中国威胁感知差异较大;中国实力认知在内群体偏好影响中国威胁感知中起到中介作用;党派差异调节了内群体偏好透过中国实力认知作用于中国威胁感知之间的中介关系,且对执政党的民主党人士而言,党派差异与中国实力认知的交互调节作用更为显著。上述研究从社会心理层面拓展了美国公众的中国威胁感知的形成机制,通过关注美国国内的民意态度有助于预测美国政府对华战略,以研判中美关系的走向。In recent years,the strategic competition between China and the United States has intensified,with China being perceived as one of the greatest external challenges to the U.S.,Sino-U.S.policy has become a key component of the domestic political landscape in the United States.This study employs data from the“Clobal Public Opinion Index”(2023)to explore the threat perception of China among the American public and the underlying mechanisms that shape these perceptions,particularly the combined effects of in-group bias,perceptions of Chinese power,and partisan differences.The findings indicate that there are significant gender and age disparities in how the American public perceives the threat posed by China.Further analysis reveals that perceptions of Chinese power mediate the effect of in-group preferences on threat perception,while partisan differences moderate this mediation effect,with a more pronounced moderation for supporters of the Democratic Party.This paper deepens our understanding of the formation mechanisms of American public's threat perception of China from a social psychological perspective,offering new insights for forecasting U.S.government's China policies and assessing the trajectory of Sino-U.S.relations.

关 键 词：美国公众 涉华民意 内群体偏好 党派差异 社会认同 

分 类 号：D822.271.2[政治法律—政治学]