全球关键航运通道受阻对供应链的影响——“长赐号”在苏伊士运河搁浅案例分析  

The Impact of Global Key Shipping Channel Disruption on Supply Chain—Case Study on the Grounding of Ever Given in Suez Canal

作　　者：李邓宇卉 焦建彬 汪寿阳 周光辉[1] Li Dengyuhui;Jiao Jianbin;Wang Shouyang;Zhou Guanghui(School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;School of Emergency Management Science and Engineering,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;School of Entrepreneurship and Management,ShanghaiTech University,Shanghai 201210)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学应急管理科学与工程学院,北京100049 [3]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190 [4]上海科技大学创业与管理学院,上海201210

出　　处：《管理评论》2025年第2期237-248,共12页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71988101,72071195);中国科学院青年创新促进会(2019171)。

摘　　要：关键航运通道的安全畅通是供应链运转的先决条件。“长赐号”搁浅事件造成苏伊士运河长达6天的停航,对全球贸易与供应链产生了巨大的冲击,此次事件在船舶吨位、拥堵程度、经济损失等方面都打破了货轮运输的最高纪录。因此,本文介绍了“长赐号”搁浅事件全过程,分析了苏伊士运河航线面临的风险,从全球供应链连锁反应、国际原油价格波动、港口大规模拥堵、航运价格持续上涨以及对我国对外贸易的冲击等方面的影响进行系统的研究,并总结了此次事件对全球供应链中断风险管理的启示,为应对其他航运通道受阻带来的冲击提供了影响评估和应急管理的参考依据。The safety and smooth flow of key shipping channels is a prerequisite for supply chain operations.The grounding of Ever Given led to a six-day blockage of the Suez Canal,disrupting the international trade and logistics supply chain seriously.It set the highest record for container shipping in terms of vessel tonnage,congestion degree,and economic loss.This paper scrutinizes the whole process of the grounding of Ever Given and the structural risks faced by the Suez Canal route.The impact is analyzed from the perspectives of the chain reaction of global supply chain,the international crude oil price fluctuation,large-scale congestion in ports,the rapid growth of shipping price,and impacts on China’s foreign trade.Then,this paper summarizes the implications of this blockage for global supply chain risk management,and provides guidance for impact assessment and emergency management of the possible disruptions caused by other blockages of key shipping channels.

关 键 词：供应链 风险管理 海上运输 苏伊士运河 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程] F551[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]