农业保险承保规模越大越好吗?——基于大灾风险应对能力的考察  

Is Larger Agricultural Insurance Underwriting Scale Better?——Based on the Coping Capacity of Agricultural Insurance to Catastrophic Risks

作　　者：朱铭 任天驰 杨汭华[4] ZHU Ming;REN Tianchi;YANG Ruihua(School of Economics,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;Postdoctoral Workstation,China Pacific Insurance(Group)Company Limited,Shanghai 200120,China;School of Insurance,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan,Shandong 250014,China;College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433 [2]中国太平洋保险(集团)股份有限公司博士后科研工作站,上海200120 [3]山东财经大学保险学院,山东济南250014 [4]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《财经理论与实践》2025年第2期35-42,共8页The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2024M753627);国家社会科学基金面上项目(21BJY064)。

摘　　要：基于2011—2020年中国农业保险经营机构的数据,运用固定效应模型与系统广义矩估计(GMM)方法,探究农业保险承保规模对大灾风险应对能力的影响。研究发现:农业保险承保规模在初期扩张阶段对于分散承保风险具有正面作用。然而,随着承保规模的进一步扩大,风险逐步积累,导致其对于大灾风险应对能力的影响转为负面。“偿二代”监管体系的引入能够延缓因承保规模扩张而造成的大灾风险应对能力的变化趋势。鉴于此,需要根据不同类型保险公司的特点进行偿付能力分类监管,引导保险公司控制农业保险经营规模,确保其维持在既能有效应对大灾风险又能保持稳定经营的区间内。Based on the data of China's agricultural insurance operators from 2011 to 2020,a fixed-effects model and the systematic generalized moment estimation(GMM) method are used to analyze the impact of agricultural insurance underwriting scale on the coping capacity of agricultural insurance to catastrophic risks.The study finds that,agricultural insurance underwriting scale has a positive effect on diversifying underwriting risk during the initial expansion phase.However,with the further expansion of underwriting scale,there has been a gradual build-up of risk,leading to a negative turn in its impact on the coping capacity of agricultural insurance to catastrophic risks.The introduction of “Solvency Ⅱ” can slow down the trend of changes in the coping capacity to catastrophic risks caused by the expansion of underwriting scale.In view of this,there is a need to categorize and supervise solvency according to the characteristics of different types of insurance companies,and to guide insurance companies in controlling the operating scale to ensure the maintenance zone which can both effectively cope with catastrophic risks and maintain stable operations.

关 键 词：农业保险 承保规模 大灾风险 应对能力 偿付能力监管体系 

分 类 号：F840.66[经济管理—保险]