基于逻辑回归模型的山区城镇地质灾害风险评价方法  

Risk assessment method of geological hazards in mountain towns based on logistic regression model

作　　者：周修波 李永红 陈建平 何意平 姬怡微 张辉 蒙晓 丁子昂 ZHOU Xiubo;LI Yonghong;CHEN Jianping;HE Yiping;JI Yiwei;ZHANG Hui;MENG Xiao;DING Ziang(Shanxi Institute of Geo-Environment Monitoring,Xi'an 710054,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西省地质环境监测总站,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《城市地质》2025年第1期81-91,共11页Urban Geology

基　　金：汉阴县漩涡镇地质灾害调查评价项目;陕西省自然资源厅2021年度地质灾害综合防治体系建设项目(陕自然资勘发〔2021〕42号)资助。

摘　　要：文章以汉阴县漩涡镇为示范区,以斜坡为调查评价单元,开展大比例尺、精细化地质灾害调查,利用逻辑回归分析各孕灾因子权重,建立综合指数法模型,评价地质灾害易发性。以日降雨量80 mm为暴雨工况,评价斜坡单元危险性;依据受威胁人员和财产评价承灾体易损性。基于地质灾害危险性和承灾体易损性,定量评价暴雨工况下斜坡单元风险,以行政村为界,按照“区内相同、区际相异”原则,划定地质灾害风险区。采用ROC曲线检验、前人调查评价结果对比、实地再核查等多种方式进行验证,评价结果可靠。Taking Xuanwo Town,Hanyin County as the demonstration zone and using slopes as the basic unit,this paper carries out large-scale and refined surveys of the geological environment.Logistic regression is applied to analysis the various hazard factor weights,establish a comprehensive index method model,and evaluate the susceptibility of geological hazards.Hazard risk of slope unit is assessed by taking the daily rainfall of 80mm as the rainstorm condition.Rick vulnerability is evaluated according to the threatened personnel and property targets.The risk level of slope unit under rainstorm condition is analyzed base on the geological hazard risk index and the vulnerability index of hazard-affected,and the geological hazard risk zoning is determined according to the principle of"same within the risk region and different between administrative regions",and the administrative villages as the boundary.The evaluation results are verified to be reliable using ROC curve test and through comparison with previous investigation results,and field reverification.

关 键 词：地质灾害 风险评价 易发性评价 山区城镇 

分 类 号：P69[天文地球—地质学]