基于陆海统筹视角的中国沿海地区人口、资源及环境要素空间匹配演化分析  

Spatial matching and evolution analysis of population,resources and environmental elements in China's coastal zone based on the perspective of land-sea coordination

作　　者：盖美[1] 斯铁鑫 岳鹏[1] GAI Mei;SI Tiexin;YUE Peng(Institute of Marine Sustainable Development,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋可持续发展研究院,大连116029

出　　处：《海洋经济》2025年第1期1-11,共11页Marine Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目[42276231];教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目[22JJD790028];辽宁师范大学2023年高端科研成果培育资助项目[23GDL005]。

摘　　要：沿海地区人口、资源及环境要素空间匹配研究对陆海统筹整体功能有效发挥具有重要参考价值。本文基于可变模糊识别模型、重心模型、空间错位模型及多元线性回归模型等方法,探究2005-2019年中国沿海地区人口、资源及环境要素时空格局、空间匹配的演化及影响因素。结果表明:①2005-2019年沿海地区人口、资源及环境要素水平整体趋势向好,但各有起伏,且存在较大差异,通过重心模型发现沿海地区各要素重心变动较为明显,其中环境要素变化最为复杂。②从空间重叠性及一致性变化情况来看,要素变化整体趋势向好,但内部差异较大,存在不匹配问题,其中低错位地区为山东、浙江、辽宁、天津、河北;中错位地区为江苏、福建、广东、广西;较高错位地区为海南;高错位地区为上海。③通过对影响因素的分析,发现区位优势、对外开放、经济水平、产业结构、科技水平对沿海地区多要素匹配有正向显著影响,工程建设存在负面影响。本文研究结论对打开沿海地区发展新格局具有重要意义,为我国海洋强国建设提供理论依据。The study on spatial matching of population,resources and environment elements in coastal areas has important reference value for the effective development of the overall land-sea integration function.Based on the variable fuzzy identification model,gravity center model,spatial dislocation model and multiple linear regression model,this paper explores the evolution and influencing factors of spatial and temporal patterns and spatial matching of population,resources and environment factors in China's coastal areas from 2005 to 2019.The results show that:①From 2005 to 2019,the levels of population,resources,and environmental factors in the coastal areas showed an overall positive trend,albeit with fluctuations and significant disparities Through the barycentric model,it was found that the barycentric factors in the coastal areas had obvious changes,among which the environmental factors had the most complex changes.②From the perspective of spatial overlap and consistency change,the overall trend of factors change is positive,but there are significant internal differences and mismatch issues.Among these,the regions with low dislocation are Shandong,Zhejiang,Liaoning,Tianjin,Hebei;those with moderate dislocation are Jiangsu,Fujian,Guangdong and Guangxi.Hainan is a region with relatively high dislocation,while Shanghai is a region with high dislocation.③Through the analysis of the influencing factors,it is found that the location advantage,opening to the outside world,economic level,industrial structure and scientific and technological level have a positive and significant impact on the multi-factor matching of coastal areas,while the project construction has a negative impact.It is important to open the new pattern of development in coastal zone and provide theoretical basis for the construction of Marine Power.

关 键 词：要素空间匹配 陆海统筹 人口、资源及环境 可变模糊识别模型 影响因素 

分 类 号：P74[天文地球—海洋科学] F12[经济管理—世界经济]