中国沿海地区海洋公共服务水平时空演化特征及影响因素分析  

Spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of marine public services level in China's coastal areas

作　　者：狄乾斌[1,2] 吴洪宇 陈小龙 DI Qianbin;WU Hongyu;CHEN Xiaolong(Academy of Marine Sustainable Development,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China;School of Geography,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋可持续发展研究院,大连116029 [2]辽宁师范大学地理科学学院,大连116029

出　　处：《海洋经济》2025年第1期12-21,共10页Marine Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金[42076222]。

摘　　要：海洋公共服务水平提升是助力海洋经济可持续发展和增强沿海地区居民幸福感的有效路径。本文利用可变模糊识别模型、核密度估计模型、GIS空间分析和地理探测器模型,测度2006-2019年中国11个沿海地区的海洋公共服务水平,并分析其时空演化特征和影响因素。结果表明:(1)从时间上看,2006-2019年中国沿海地区海洋公共服务水平呈逐年上升趋势,由2006年的低水平(1.939)上升至中等水平(2.858),海洋公共服务水平进步显著。(2)从空间上看,2019年中国沿海地区海洋公共服务水平呈现南北两侧沿海地区偏低、东南沿海地区偏高的非均衡空间分布格局,空间异质性特征明显。(3)从影响因素来看,各因子解释力排序为:经济发展>财政支持>城市化水平>收入水平>政府调控>对外开放程度>人口规模>资源禀赋,且因子交互作用均表现为增强作用,海洋公共服务供需两侧共同作用对于海洋公共服务水平的提升作用更加显著有效。最后,基于研究结论,提出针对性的对策建议,以提升海洋公共服务水平。The improvement of marine public service level is an effective way to help the sustainable development of marine economy and enhance the well-being of residents in coastal areas.This study uses the variable fuzzy identification model,the kernel density estimation model,GIS spatial analysis,and geographic detector model to measure the marine public service level in 11 coastal areas of China from 2006 to 2019,and analyzes its spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors.The results show that:①From the perspective of time,the marine public service level in China's coastal areas showed an upward trend year by year from 2006 to 2019,rising from a low level(1.939)in 2006 to a medium level(2.858),and the marine public service level has made remarkable progress.②From the perspective of space,the marine public service level in China's coastal areas in 2019 showed an unbalanced spatial distribution pattern,with low levels in the northern and southern coastal areas and high levels in the southeastern coastal areas,and the spatial heterogeneity was obvious.③From the perspective of influencing factors,the explanatory power of each factor is ranked as follows:economic development>financial support>urbanization level>income level>government regulation>opening to the outside world>population size>resource endowment.The interaction of factors shows an enhancing effect,making the joint effect of supply and demand in marine public services more significant and effective in improving their level.Finally,based on the research conclusions,this paper proposes recommendations to improve the level of marine public service.

关 键 词：海洋公共服务 可变模糊识别 核密度估计 GIS空间分析 地理探测器 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学] F12[天文地球—海洋科学] P74