贸易政策不确定性对涉海上市企业经营风险的影响研究  

Research on the influence of trade policy uncertainty on the operating risk of sea-related listed enterprises

作　　者：李昀翔 薛岳梅 LI Yunxiang;XUE Yuemei(School of Economics,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院,青岛266100

出　　处：《海洋经济》2025年第1期45-54,共10页Marine Economy

摘　　要：涉海上市企业是海洋经济发展的主战场,由贸易保护主义冲击引发的不确定性攀升可能对涉海上市企业产生不利影响。本文以2012-2021年涉海上市企业为研究样本,运用固定效应模型与中介效应模型实证检验了贸易政策不确定性对涉海上市企业经营风险的影响及其机理。研究发现,贸易政策不确定性会显著加剧涉海上市企业经营风险。机制检验表明,贸易政策不确定性提升了涉海上市企业现金持有波动性和金融化程度,进而加剧了其经营风险。进一步分析发现,“一带一路”倡议的推进、外部融资能力和公司治理水平的提升能够显著缓解贸易政策不确定性对涉海上市企业经营风险的负面影响。本文既为贸易政策不确定性变动所形成的经济后果提供了丰富且稳健的经验证据,也为切实有效防范不确定性风险以及推动海洋经济高质量发展提供了政策启示。Sea-related listed companies are the main battlefield of marine economic development.The rising uncertainty caused by the impact of trade protectionism may have a negative impact on sea-related listed companies.This paper takes sea-related listed enterprises from 2012 to 2021 as the research sample,uses the fixed effect model and the intermediary effect model to empirically test the influence of trade policy uncertainty on the operating risk of the sea-related listed enterprises and its mechanism.The study finds that the uncertainty of trade policy will significantly aggravate the operational risk of sea-related listed enterprises.The mechanism test shows that the uncertainty of trade policy increases the volatility and financialization of cash holdings of sea-related listed enterprises,which further intensifies their operating risk.Further analysis shows that the implementation of"The Belt and Road"initiative,the improvement of external financing capacity and corporate governance can significantly mitigate the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty on the operating risk of sea-related listed enterprises.This paper not only provides rich and robust empirical evidence for the economic consequences of changes in trade policy uncertainty,but also provides policy implications for effectively preventing uncertainty risks and promoting high-quality development of the marine economy.

关 键 词：贸易政策不确定性 涉海上市企业 经营风险 现金持有波动性 金融化 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济] P74[天文地球—海洋科学]