我国水产品价格影响机理研究  

An empirical study on influencing factors of China's aquatic product price

作　　者：邸莹 沈欣[1] DI Ying;SHEN Xin(College of Economics and Management,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学经济管理学院,上海201306

出　　处：《海洋经济》2025年第1期55-63,共9页Marine Economy

摘　　要：我国水产品价格受到多重因素影响,探究水产品价格波动因素,厘清水产品价格波动路径,有利于更好地把握我国水产品市场价格,有效规避价格波动风险,促进我国水产业转型升级和高质量发展。本文从水产品需求、替代品价格、饲料价格、货币供给、国际期货价格、国际能源价格6个影响因素角度,构建水产品价格影响机理概念模型,选取2012年1月至2019年12月期间月度经济数据,进行偏最小二乘法结构方程模型实证分析。研究结论:从表层影响因素来看,水产品需求、替代品价格直接影响水产品价格,水产品需求影响程度大于替代品影响程度;从中间层影响因素来看,国际农产品要素通过影响饲料价格、替代品价格间接影响国内水产品价格;货币供给要素通过影响水产品需求影响水产品价格。从深远层影响要素来看,国际能源价格存在多种路径影响水产品价格,总影响效应最大,对水产品价格影响深远。The price of Aquatic products in china is affected by multiple factors.It is of great significance to explore the price fluctuation factors of aquatic products,clarify the price fluctuation path of aquatic products,effectively mitigate price fluctuation risks,and promote the transformation,upgrading,and high-quality development of China's aquatic industry.This paper constructs a conceptual model of the aquatic product price formation mechanism from six influencing factors:demand for aquatic products,prices of substitutes,feed prices,money supply,international futures prices,and international energy prices.The monthly economic data from January 2012 to December 2019 are selected for empirical analysis using partial least squares structural equation model(PLS-SEM).Research conclusion:From the perspective of the surface-level influencing factors,the demand for aquatic products and the price of substitutes directly affect the price of aquatic products,the degree of influence of the demand for aquatic products is greater than that of the substitutes.From the perspective of the middle-level influencing factors,the existence of international agricultural product factors affects the price of feed,and the price of substitutes indirectly affects the price of domestic aquatic products;the existence of money supply factors affects the price of aquatic products through the demand for aquatic products.From the perspective of far-reaching influencing factors,there are multiple paths for international energy prices to affect aquatic product prices,and the total impact is the largest,which has a profound impact on aquatic product prices.

关 键 词：水产品价格 影响因素 偏最小二乘法结构方程模型 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济] P74[天文地球—海洋科学]